DISES: Between maintenance and transformation: a socio-environmental systems framework for restoration decision-making under climate change

该项目将制定一个框架，以了解气候变化下恢复决策的各种反应及其潜在驱动因素。在干旱、风暴或热浪等极端事件发生后，恢复行动可能会试图恢复和维持一个具有历史代表性的国家。或者，恢复行动可能会寻求转变为一个新的状态，预计将更强大的未来极端事件与气候变化。这两种结果都代表了对气候变化的适应，但对最终状态有着不同的管理目标。 因此，通过分析从维护到改造的连续体上恢复成果的驱动因素，该项目将确定以具体、可操作的目标为框架的适应气候变化能力的驱动因素。此外，通过关注海洋系统，该项目将通过为积极的恢复工作提供信息而造福社会。随着渔业的减少和关闭，公共机构、非政府组织、渔业组织和公民团体正在实施新的恢复干预措施。在整个项目期间与这些实体的伙伴关系将考虑到项目活动中的社区和管理需求，并为时间敏感的管理决策提供信息。该项目在三个机构推进STEM教育培训，并扩大了历史上在科学领域代表性不足的群体的参与。该项目将探索加州海岸的海带森林，作为一个模型系统，以评估影响恢复工作的环境和社会驱动因素。在一系列海洋热浪事件之后，加州海带最近经历了前所未有的下降，与海带消费海胆的相关增加阻碍了海带的恢复。海带的减少与生物多样性的减少以及对相关沿海社区至关重要的娱乐和商业渔业的减少有关。该项目的目标是描述不同社会环境系统（SES）组件中维护和改造结果的驱动因素，并通过三种综合方法探索它们的相互作用。首先，实证调查将描述生态，社会和机构能力的驱动因素，以应对极端事件，结合海洋学分析，生态实地研究，访谈和资源使用者，其他利益相关者，管理者和监管机构的调查。第二，告知这种经验的表征，一个动态耦合的SES模型将探讨如何实现确定的管理目标的维护-改造连续体取决于系统组件的不确定性和生态恢复和社会响应的相对时间尺度。第三，将SES模型与治理网络分析联系起来，将表明SES网络配置如何影响在分散的机构环境中实现维护-改造连续体目标的能力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will develop a framework for understanding the range of responses, and their potential drivers, in restoration decision-making under climate change. Following an extreme event such as a drought, storm, or heat wave, restoration actions might seek to recover and maintain a historically representative state. Alternately, restoration actions might seek transformation to a new state that is anticipated to be more robust to future extreme events with climate change. Both outcomes represent adaptation to climate change, but with distinct management goals for the end state. Therefore, by analyzing the drivers of restoration outcomes on a continuum from maintenance to transformation, this project will identify drivers of adaptive capacity to climate change framed in terms of concrete, actionable goals. In addition, by focusing on marine systems, this project will benefit society by informing active restoration efforts. With fishery declines and closures, public agencies, NGOs, fishing organizations, and citizen groups are implementing novel restoration interventions. Partnership with these entities throughout the project will account for community and management needs in project activities and inform time-sensitive management decisions. The project advances STEM educational training at three institutions, and broadens the participation of groups historically underrepresented in science. This project will explore kelp forests off the California coast as a model system to evaluate environmental and social drivers influencing efforts at restoration. Following a series of marine heat wave events, California kelp have recently experienced unprecedented decline, with associated increases in kelp-consuming urchins impeding kelp recovery. Kelp declines are associated with declines in biodiversity as well as declines in recreational and commercial fisheries that are vital to the associated coastal communities. The goal of this project is to characterize the drivers of maintenance and transformation outcomes in different socio-environmental system (SES) components and explore their interactions through three integrated approaches. First, empirical investigation will characterize the drivers of ecological, social, and institutional capacity to respond to extreme events with a combination of oceanographic analysis, ecological field studies, and interviews and a survey of resource users, other stakeholders, managers, and regulators. Second, informed by this empirical characterization, a dynamically coupled SES model will explore how the achievement of identified management goals on the maintenance-transformation continuum depends on uncertainty in system components and the relative time scales of ecological recovery and social response. Third, linking the SES model to governance network analysis will indicate how SES network configurations affect the ability to realize goals on the maintenance-transformation continuum in fragmented institutional contexts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.