Examining the Geography of Pathogen Spillover

该项目研究疾病溢出，即寄生虫和病原体从一个物种传播到另一个物种。寄生虫和病原体在物种之间的传播是影响人类的传染病的一个来源，包括埃博拉、SARS和COVID-19等过去的例子。作为理论模型的补充，本研究侧重于导致狂犬病在蝙蝠种群中溢出的途径。狂犬病在蝙蝠之间的传播相对普遍，这使得可以对预测的溢出动态进行测试。该研究包括对多个地点的蝙蝠种群进行抽样，以确定狂犬病的流行程度，狂犬病的流行程度可能因多种因素而变化，包括各自种群的遗传多样性。研究人员还利用档案数据来评估与景观干扰有关的溢出事件的可能性。该项目为学生提供了培训机会，研究结果将与监测公共卫生和野生动物种群的各种机构共享。这项研究有助于理解包括人类在内的物种之间疾病溢出的风险。这项研究的重点是蝙蝠传播的狂犬病传播，这种传播相对频繁，从而可以了解其他传染性病原体的传播途径。为了评估狂犬病传播的决定因素，研究人员使用了多种方法。从不同地点采集的蝙蝠血液样本使实验室工作能够评估与种群遗传多样性和生态变量相关的狂犬病感染程度。研究人员还使用狂犬病感染的档案记录来评估溢出事件的预测因素，例如景观干扰和溢出在蝙蝠生态位中心附近相对更常见的预期。该研究包括理论模型的发展，这些模型反映了溢出事件随时间的推断动态，这些模型可以应用于类似病原体的研究。研究结果为减轻人口溢出事件风险的各种努力提供了信息。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project examines disease spillover, which refers to the transmission of parasites and pathogens from one species to another. The transmission of parasites and pathogens between species is a source of infectious diseases that impact human populations, including past examples such as Ebola, SARS, and COVID-19. As a complement to theoretical models, this study focuses on the pathways that lead to spillover of rabies among populations of bats. The transmission of rabies among bats is relatively common, which enables tests of predicted spillover dynamics. The study includes sampling of bat populations in multiple locations to determine the prevalence of rabies, which potentially varies in response to multiple factors, including the genetic diversity of the respective populations. The researchers also draw on archival data to assess the probability of spillover events in relation to landscape disturbancesThe project provides training opportunities for students, and the results will be shared with diverse institutions that monitor public health and wildlife populations.This study contributes to understandings of the risks of disease spillover between species, including humans. The research focuses on bat-borne rabies transmission, which occurs relatively frequently, permitting insights of transmission pathways that could similarly characterize other infectious pathogens. To assess the determinants of rabies transmission, the researchers use multiple methods. Blood samples collected from bats at diverse locations permit laboratory work to assess the extent of rabies infections in relation to the genetic diversity of the populations and ecological variables. The researchers also use archival records on rabies infections to assess the predictors of spillover events, such as landscape disturbance and the expectation that spillover is relatively more common near the center of the bats’ ecological niche. The study includes the development of theoretical models that reflect the inferred dynamics of spillover events over time, and these models could be applied to studies of similar pathogens. The findings inform diverse efforts to mitigate the risks of spillover events for human populations.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.