Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas.
Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas.
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DOI：
10.1186/s40249-023-01091-2
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发表时间：
2023-05-06
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
病媒传播疾病（VBD）是全球传染病负担的重要贡献者，因为它们具有流行潜力，可导致重大的人口和经济影响。奥罗普什热是由奥罗普什病毒（Oropouche virus，OBD）引起的一种动物源性VBD发热性疾病，在中美洲和南美洲有报道。流行病的可能性和霍乱可能蔓延的地区仍未得到探索，限制了改进流行病监测的能力。为了更好地了解蝗虫的传播能力，我们开发了空间流行病学模型，使用人类疫情作为蝗虫传播的地方性数据，再加上高分辨率的卫星衍生的植被物候。使用超体积建模对数据进行了整合，以推断美洲各地可能的霍乱传播和出现区域。基于一个支持向量机超体积的模型一致地预测了拉丁美洲热带地区的霍乱传播风险区域，尽管包括不同的参数，如不同的研究区域和环境预测因子。模型估计，多达500万人有暴露于阿片类药物的风险。然而，现有的流行病学数据有限，造成预测的不确定性。例如，有些疫情发生在大多数传播事件发生的气候条件之外。分布模型还显示，景观变化，表示为植被损失，与蝗虫爆发。沿着南美洲热带地区发现了霍乱传播风险的热点。植被的丧失可能是奥罗普什热出现的一个驱动因素。基于空间流行病学中的超体积的建模可以被认为是分析数据有限的新出现的传染病的探索性工具，对这些传染病的森林周期知之甚少。蝗虫传播风险地图可用于改善监测，调查蝗虫生态学和流行病学，并为早期发现提供信息。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s40249-023-01091-2获得。
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-023-01091-2.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Escobar LE
通讯作者：
Escobar LE
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Escobar LE;Craft ME
通讯作者：
Craft ME
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
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通讯作者：
Kerkhoff, Andrew J.
影响因子：
2.1
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Ketoh, Guillaume Koffivi
影响因子：
16.8
作者：
Feng, Xiao;Park, Daniel S.;Popes, Monica
通讯作者：
Popes, Monica