Collaborative Research: Novel Ensemble Based North Atlantic Diagnostics

耦合气候模型需要动态一致和准确的海洋模型。预计气候预测在未来很长一段时间内都需要对海洋流动的涡流部分进行一定程度的参数化。这个项目的目标是通过海洋模拟集合的新检查来促进海洋涡旋的参数化。集合方法在气候模拟中很常见，但还没有被用于研究海洋动力学。将分析一个特别关注墨西哥湾流的北大西洋整体，并将其与北大西洋内部进行对比。墨西哥湾流表现出特殊的动力特征，预计将突出集合提供的新方法的好处。北大西洋内部的涡旋场预计将呈现出截然不同的、可探测到的特征。该项目的成果有望提高对海洋和气候模式中涡旋参数化的理解。该提议的智力价值在于发展了定量集合分析背后的理论，并将其应用于北大西洋模拟的集合。这些技术将被移植到几个在主导秩序动态上不同的北大西洋地区的分析中。这项分析将澄清涡旋领域在全球海洋中的各种角色。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Coupled climate models require dynamically consistent and accurate ocean modules. Climate projections are expected to require some degree of parameterization for the eddy component of ocean flows well into the future. The objective of this project is to contribute to ocean eddy parameterization by means of novel examinations of ensembles of ocean simulations. Ensemble approaches are common in climate modeling but have not been employed for studying the ocean dynamics. A North Atlantic ensemble with a particular focus on the Gulf Stream will be analyzed and contrasted with the interior of the North Atlantic. The Gulf Stream exhibits exceptional dynamical features and is expected to highlight the benefits of novel approaches provided by ensembles. The North Atlantic interior eddy field is expected to take on very different, detectable characteristics. The outcomes of this project are expected to improve understanding of eddy parameterizations in both ocean and climate models.The Intellectual Merit of the proposal lies in the development of the theory behind quantitative ensemble analysis and its application to a collection of North Atlantic simulations. The techniques will be ported to the analysis of several North Atlantic regions differing in their leading order dynamics. This analysis will clarify the various roles of the eddy field within the global ocean.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.