Low Frequency Intrinsic Variability in the Eddying Ocean

本研究的目的是评估由于内在海洋变率而导致的气候预测中的不确定性，以及探索可能反馈到大气的海洋变率模式。将进行的分析对于提高我们对气候可预测性的理解至关重要，并且对于阐明耦合气候模式必须准确捕获哪些形式的海洋动力学来解决十年尺度气候变率的问题至关重要。调查结果将通过出版物、各种会议、讲习班、暑期学校以及互联网传播。佛罗里达州立大学与欧洲科学家之间的国际联系将得到加强。该项目将资助一名年轻研究员和一名研究生。调查人员还将与大学和州一级现有的推广和教育项目合作，为K-12科学教师提供材料，帮助他们按照佛罗里达州的科学、技术、工程和数学标准进行教学。本研究的主要目的是剖析北大西洋1至10年范围内的变率及其动力和起源。这种变率将使用北大西洋的高分辨率海洋环流模式进行模拟，并进行分析，将变率分为强迫变率或内在变率，本地变率或远程变率。这些不同种类的变率对众所周知的观测指数的贡献，如大西洋经向翻转环流，将被估计。这一分析使用了强调潜在涡度诊断、集合平均和数据简化的新方法，将为大西洋经向翻转环流和墨西哥湾流的质量输送等海洋气候的关键测量提供内在变率贡献的定量信息。将诊断支持内在变率的动力学，并计算地表下变率的投影，目前大部分海洋观测都是在地表上获得的。此外，将评估远中尺度动力对北大西洋变率的影响程度；这样做将有助于理解政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ipcc）那些允许涡流的模型的行为。

The aim of this study is to assess uncertainties in climate predictions due to intrinsic ocean variability, as well as explore modes of ocean variability that may feedback on the atmosphere. The analyses that will be conducted are essential for advancing our understanding of climate predictability, and for clarifying what forms of ocean dynamics coupled climate models must accurately capture to address the questions of decadal-scale climate variability. The findings will be disseminated in publications and in various meetings, workshops, summer schools as well as via the internet. International connections between Florida State University and European scientists will be strengthened. The project will support a young researcher and a graduate student. The investigators will also work with existing outreach and education programs at the University and state level to support K-12 science teachers with materials that assist them in teaching to the Florida Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics standards.The broad objective of this study is to dissect North Atlantic variability in the 1-to-10 year range with respect to its dynamics and origins. This variability will be simulated using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model of the North Atlantic and analyzed to categorize the variability as forced or intrinsic, and local or remote in origin. The contributions of these various kinds of variability to well-known observational indices, like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, will be estimated. This analysis using novel methods that emphasize potential vorticity diagnostics, ensemble averaging and data reduction, will provide quantitative information on the contribution of intrinsic variability to such critical measures of the ocean climate as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the mass transport of the Gulf Stream. The dynamics supporting the intrinsic variability will be diagnosed, and the projection of subsurface variability onto the surface, where the bulk of ocean observations are currently obtained, will be computed. Additionally, the extent to which remote mesoscale dynamics influence North Atlantic variability will be assessed; doing so will help understand the behavior of planned classes of eddy-permitting Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models.