Low Frequency Intrinsic Variability in the Eddying Ocean

这项研究的目的是评估由于固有的海洋变异性而导致的气候预测的不确定性，以及探索可能对大气产生反馈的海洋变异性的模式。将进行的分析对于增进我们对气候可预测性的理解以及澄清耦合气候模型必须准确捕捉哪些形式的海洋动力学以解决十年尺度气候变异性问题至关重要。调查结果将在出版物、各种会议、研讨会、暑期学校以及互联网上传播。佛罗里达州立大学和欧洲科学家之间的国际联系将得到加强。该项目将资助一名年轻的研究人员和一名研究生。调查人员还将与现有的大学和州一级的外展和教育项目合作，为K-12科学教师提供材料，帮助他们按照佛罗里达州的科学、技术、工程和数学标准进行教学。这项研究的广泛目标是剖析北大西洋在1至10年范围内的变化及其动态和起源。将使用北大西洋的高分辨率海洋环流模式模拟这种可变性，并对其进行分析，以将这种可变性归类为强迫或内在的，以及起源于本地或远程的。这些不同类型的变化对众所周知的观测指标，如大西洋子午线翻转环流的贡献将被估计。这项分析使用了强调位涡诊断、集合平均和数据简化的新方法，将提供关于内在变率对大西洋经向翻转环流和墨西哥湾流质量传输等海洋气候关键指标的贡献的定量信息。将诊断支持内在可变性的动力学，并将计算次表层可变性在目前获得大量海洋观测的表面上的投影。此外，还将评估远程中尺度动力学对北大西洋可变性的影响程度；这样做将有助于理解计划中的允许涡流的政府间气候变化专门委员会模型的行为。

The aim of this study is to assess uncertainties in climate predictions due to intrinsic ocean variability, as well as explore modes of ocean variability that may feedback on the atmosphere. The analyses that will be conducted are essential for advancing our understanding of climate predictability, and for clarifying what forms of ocean dynamics coupled climate models must accurately capture to address the questions of decadal-scale climate variability. The findings will be disseminated in publications and in various meetings, workshops, summer schools as well as via the internet. International connections between Florida State University and European scientists will be strengthened. The project will support a young researcher and a graduate student. The investigators will also work with existing outreach and education programs at the University and state level to support K-12 science teachers with materials that assist them in teaching to the Florida Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics standards.The broad objective of this study is to dissect North Atlantic variability in the 1-to-10 year range with respect to its dynamics and origins. This variability will be simulated using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model of the North Atlantic and analyzed to categorize the variability as forced or intrinsic, and local or remote in origin. The contributions of these various kinds of variability to well-known observational indices, like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, will be estimated. This analysis using novel methods that emphasize potential vorticity diagnostics, ensemble averaging and data reduction, will provide quantitative information on the contribution of intrinsic variability to such critical measures of the ocean climate as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the mass transport of the Gulf Stream. The dynamics supporting the intrinsic variability will be diagnosed, and the projection of subsurface variability onto the surface, where the bulk of ocean observations are currently obtained, will be computed. Additionally, the extent to which remote mesoscale dynamics influence North Atlantic variability will be assessed; doing so will help understand the behavior of planned classes of eddy-permitting Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models.