Low Frequency Intrinsic Variability in the Eddying Ocean

这项研究的目的是评估由于海洋固有的变异性造成的气候预测的不确定性，以及探索可能反馈到大气的海洋变异模式。将要进行的分析对于促进我们对气候可预测性的理解，以及澄清海洋动力学耦合气候模型必须准确捕获哪些形式以解决十年尺度气候变异性问题至关重要。调查结果将通过出版物、各种会议、讲习班、暑期学校以及互联网传播。佛罗里达州立大学和欧洲科学家之间的国际联系将得到加强。该项目将资助一名青年研究员和一名研究生。调查人员还将与现有的推广和教育计划，在大学和国家一级，以支持K-12科学教师的材料，帮助他们在教学中的佛罗里达科学，技术，工程和数学standards.The广泛的目标，这项研究是解剖北大西洋的变化在1至10年的范围内，其动态和起源。 将使用北大西洋高分辨率海洋环流模型模拟这种变异，并进行分析，将变异归类为被迫或内在的，以及本地或远程起源。将估计这些各种变率对众所周知的观测指数，如大西洋经向翻转环流的贡献。这种分析采用强调位涡诊断、总体平均和数据简化的新方法，将提供关于内在变率对大西洋经向翻转环流和墨西哥湾流质量输送等海洋气候关键措施的贡献的定量信息。将对支持内在变率的动力学进行诊断，并计算次表层变率在目前获得大量海洋观测数据的表面上的投影。此外，远程中尺度动力学影响北大西洋变率的程度将被评估;这样做将有助于了解计划中的允许涡流的政府间气候变化专门委员会模型的行为。

The aim of this study is to assess uncertainties in climate predictions due to intrinsic ocean variability, as well as explore modes of ocean variability that may feedback on the atmosphere. The analyses that will be conducted are essential for advancing our understanding of climate predictability, and for clarifying what forms of ocean dynamics coupled climate models must accurately capture to address the questions of decadal-scale climate variability. The findings will be disseminated in publications and in various meetings, workshops, summer schools as well as via the internet. International connections between Florida State University and European scientists will be strengthened. The project will support a young researcher and a graduate student. The investigators will also work with existing outreach and education programs at the University and state level to support K-12 science teachers with materials that assist them in teaching to the Florida Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics standards.The broad objective of this study is to dissect North Atlantic variability in the 1-to-10 year range with respect to its dynamics and origins. This variability will be simulated using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model of the North Atlantic and analyzed to categorize the variability as forced or intrinsic, and local or remote in origin. The contributions of these various kinds of variability to well-known observational indices, like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, will be estimated. This analysis using novel methods that emphasize potential vorticity diagnostics, ensemble averaging and data reduction, will provide quantitative information on the contribution of intrinsic variability to such critical measures of the ocean climate as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the mass transport of the Gulf Stream. The dynamics supporting the intrinsic variability will be diagnosed, and the projection of subsurface variability onto the surface, where the bulk of ocean observations are currently obtained, will be computed. Additionally, the extent to which remote mesoscale dynamics influence North Atlantic variability will be assessed; doing so will help understand the behavior of planned classes of eddy-permitting Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models.