Collaborative Research: Mid-Latitude Modes of Climate Variability

建议在年代际和更长的时间尺度上研究耦合的中纬度气候变率。主要的假设是，这种可变性的一个关键组成部分来自内在的海洋来源。这一假设将使用海洋-大气耦合系统的数值模型进行分析，重点放在海洋的风驱动变率上，而不是热盐环流。一个中等复杂度的模型非常适合测试这个假设。该模型由海洋和大气组成，每一个都捕捉到相应流体的湍流性质。我们的建议的新特点是将这两个模型耦合起来，并分析了耦合湍流的性质。要在两种流体中同时实现湍流，需要对每种流体的简化模型进行研究。更动态完整的模型在实现这一目标时面临的一个基本问题是计算机能力不足。因此，作为海洋环流和气候反馈的小尺度海洋变率的参数化是理解和预测耦合气候变率的一个关键问题。将采取初步步骤拟订这种参数化，并在这个模型内进行测试。耦合环流模型还面临着耦合行为的现象学尚不清楚的问题，从而使模型结果的分析和解释变得复杂。这项工作将通过提供耦合系统行为的概念范式来帮助解决这个问题。这一建议的智力价值在于分析了一个与年代际时间尺度上的耦合气候问题有关的可行假设。这项工作的更广泛影响在于在该领域的两个主要机构（加州大学洛杉矶分校和FSU）之间建立科学伙伴关系，通过出版物，研讨会和在国内和国际会议上的演讲广泛传播我们的工作成果，并解决气候预测中至关重要的社会问题。

0221066/0220700 Ghil/DewarIt is proposed to study coupled mid-latitude climate variability on decadal and longer time scales. The main hypothesis is that a critical component of this variability arises from intrinsic ocean sources. This hypothesis will be analyzed using a numerical model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, focusing on the oceans' wind-driven variability, rather than on that of the thermohaline circulation. An intermediate complexity model is ideally suited to test this hypothesis. The model consists of an oceanic and an atmospheric component, each of which captures the turbulent nature of the corresponding fluid. The new feature of our proposal is in coupling these two models, and analyzing the nature of the coupled turbulence that results. To achieve turbulence simultaneously in the two fluids requires working with reduced models of each. One fundamental problem faced by more dynamically complete models in achieving this same goal is insufficient computer power. Parameterization of small-scale oceanic variability as a feedback on the ocean's general circulation and on climate thus stands as a critical problem for understanding and predicting coupled climate variability. Initial steps will be taken towards formulating such parameterizations and testing them within this model. Coupled general circulation models also face the problem that the phenomenology of coupled behavior is not currently known, thus complicating the analysis and interpretation of model results. This work will contribute to a solution of this problem by providing a conceptual paradigm for coupled system behavior. The intellectual merit of this proposal is to analyze a viable hypothesis relevant to the coupled climate problem on inter-decadal timescales. The broader impacts of the work lie in developing scientific partnerships between two leading institutions (UCLA and FSU) in this field, broadly disseminating the results of our work by means of publications, seminars and presentations at national and international meetings, and addressing a problem of crucial societal importance in climate prediction.