How Will Post-Landfall Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Impacts Respond to Climate Change?

热带气旋（TCs）在登陆时通常会减弱。然而，由于持续的降雨和持续的风，减弱的tc可能造成损害。影响登陆后tc衰减速率的因素有很多。局部影响（如地表和土壤特征以及地理位置）很重要。然而，研究较少的影响，如在登陆期间或之后TC与温带环流的相互作用也很重要，并且可能在气候变暖中变得更加相关。本文研究了在气候变暖的情况下，着陆后TC衰减率及其影响可能发生的变化，强调了登陆位置的变化及其与急流的接近程度所导致的衰减率的变化。这一重点直接建立在研究者最近的工作上，该工作表明，由于TC-急流相互作用的加强，北大西洋盆地中TC活动的温带过渡向极地转移，导致气候变暖。任务包括在伪全球变暖情景中进行理想化和真实数据的案例研究，分析观测结果以及解析tc的全球模式模拟。利用层次分析和建模策略，这项工作将评估TC活动和登陆位置的变化，降水和破坏性风的程度的变化，以及与中纬度急流相互作用的频率和强度。在与国家大气研究中心和各州机构的科学家合作下，这些活动将培训来自代表性不足群体的研究生和本科生。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Tropical cyclones (TCs) typically weaken when making landfall. Nevertheless, weakening TCs can exact damages, owing to persistent rainfall and sustained winds. Various factors influence the decay rate of post-landfall TCs. Local effects (like land-surface and soil characteristics and geographical location) are important. However, less-studied effects like TC interactions with the extratropical circulation during or after landfall are also important and could become more relevant in a warming climate. This proposal addresses how the post-landfall TC decay rate and its impacts may change in a warming climate, emphasizing on the varying decay rate resulting from changes in landfall location and its proximity to the jet stream. This emphasis builds directly on the investigator’s recent work suggesting a poleward shift in the extratropical transition of TC activity in the North Atlantic basin with climate warming due to the strengthening of the TC-jet stream interactions. The tasks include conducting idealized and real-data case studies in pseudo-global warming scenarios and analyzing observations as well as TC-resolving global model simulations. Leveraging a hierarchy of analyses and modeling strategies, the work will assess the shifts in TC activity and landfall location, the changes in precipitation and the extent of damaging winds, and the frequency and strength of interaction with mid-latitude jets. In collaboration with scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and state agencies, the activities will train graduate and undergraduate students from underrepresented groups.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.