Dynamics and Predictability of Mesoscale Rainband in Lee Cyclones

小行星9700626 与对气旋的天气尺度方面的了解和预测能力的提高相比，对与中纬度气旋有关的降水和恶劣天气的预测进展缓慢。 造成这种情况的一个主要原因是缺乏具有足够空间和时间分辨率的数据来解析与降水带有关的中尺度过程。 中尺度重力波是对降水带的形成和调制起重要作用的中尺度现象之一。 重力波对天气预报员来说是一个真实的挑战，因为它们几乎不可能用标准的天气观测来检测，也不是常规的业务模型预测的。 国家气象局现代化所带来的观测和建模方面的重大改进，现在为研究和业务气象界提供了一个机会，使他们能够共同努力，加深对这些中尺度现象的理解。 需要对波浪动力学和生成机制进行更多的研究，并将其与其他中尺度现象（特别是高空冷锋）区分开来 重力波的产生机制和垂直结构，它们与对流的相互作用，以及它们在气旋生成过程中的作用仍然难以捉摸。 造成这种混乱的一个原因是，证据往往表明可能有不止一种机制在起作用。 主要研究者最近的研究集中在了解天气产生的中尺度重力波的强迫，动力学和垂直结构，主要使用表面，风廓线仪和在STORM-FEST项目期间获得的中尺度模型数据。 首席研究员发现，当急流遇到落基山脉时，在背风气旋生成期间，在动力不平衡的区域中倾向于产生强烈的波浪。 然而，至少在其中一个案例中，证据还表明，在海浪附近出现了冷锋。 根据该奖项进行的研究既代表了主要研究者过去努力的延续，也代表了向新的相关方向的延伸。最终的目标是将观测到的降水带结构和动力学纳入美国中部背风气旋的新概念模型。S. 第一个目标是解决高空冷锋与重力波的作用，或者它们的相互作用，在雨带的产生。 其次，这项研究将有助于消除关于不平衡动力学在重力波形成中的作用的模糊性。 第三个目标是解决中尺度可预测性问题，即中尺度模型需要哪些数据和数据同化技术才能可靠地产生观测到的重力波。 最后，首席调查员将完成对冷锋产生的孤波和钻孔的持续调查。 这项研究的结果可能会对预测中尺度重力波的能力产生直接和直接的影响。 ***

9700626 Koch Progress in forecasting of precipitation and severe weather associated with mid-latitude cyclones has been slow, compared to advances in understanding and ability to forecast the synoptic-scale aspects of cyclones. A major reason for this has been the lack of data with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to resolve mesoscale processes associated with precipitation bands. One of the mesoscale phenomena that has been suggested to play an important role in the formation and modulation of precipitation bands is mesoscale gravity waves. Gravity waves present a real challenge to weather forecasters, because they have been nearly impossible to detect with standard synoptic observations and are not routinely predicted by operational models. The major observational and modeling improvements being brought about by the National Weather Service Modernization now affords the opportunity for the research and operational meteorological communities to work together to develop improved understanding of these mesoscale phenomena. Additional research is needed on wave dynamics and generation mechanisms, and to differentiate them from the presence of other mesoscale phenomena, notably cold fronts aloft A definitive identification of gravity wave generation mechanisms and vertical structure, their interactions with convection, and their role in the cyclogenesis process remains elusive. One cause for this confusion is that the evidence often suggests more than one mechanism may be operative. Recent research by the Principal Investigator has focused on understanding the forcing, dynamics, and vertical structure of weather-producing mesoscale gravity waves using primarily surface, wind profiler, and mesoscale model data obtained during the STORM-FEST project. The Principal Investigator has found there to be a predilection for strong waves to be generated in regions of dynamic imbalance during lee cyclogenesis as a jet streak encounters the Rocky Mountai ns. However, in at least one of these cases, the evidence also suggests that a cold front aloft occurred in close proximity to the waves. The research to be performed under this award represents both a continuation of the Principal Investigator s past efforts and an extension into new but related directions. The ultimate goal is to incorporate observed precipitation band structure and dynamics into a new conceptual model for lee cyclones in the central U. S. The first objective is to resolve the role of cold fronts aloft versus gravity waves, or perhaps their interactions, in the generation of rainbands. Secondly, the research will help to remove ambiguities concerning the role of unbalanced dynamics in gravity wave formation. The third objective, will be to address the issue of mesoscale predictability, in terms of what data and data assimilation techniques are required for mesoscale models to reliably produce observed gravity waves. Lastly, the Principal Investigator will complete an ongoing investigation of solitary waves and bores generated by cold fronts. Results from this research potentially will have direct and immediate impact on the ability to predict mesoscale gravity waves. ***