CAREER: Understanding the Local and Remote Drivers of Regional Climate Change

温室气体的变暖效应是全球性的，但在全球范围内并不均匀，区域变暖的差异对气候变化影响具有重要影响。厄尔尼诺现象为热带海洋差异变暖的重要性提供了一个有用的参考点，因为赤道东太平洋相对于西太平洋的变暖导致了全球天气和气候的中断。对未来气候影响的评估，比如对美国西南部的影响，不仅要考虑热带海洋变暖的幅度，还要考虑海表温度（SST）上升的模式。但是，尽管进行了大量的研究，但对于气候变暖的模式应该是什么以及是什么因素决定了这一模式，目前还没有一个清晰的认识。特别是，目前还不清楚热带和亚热带的海温差异会有多大变化，以及太平洋的变暖模式是否更像厄尔尼诺现象或拉尼娜现象（西太平洋变暖更大）。在该奖项下进行的研究使用一套气候模式实验来解决变暖模式，以确定影响海温变暖模式及其可能随时间演变的物理机制。进一步的工作考虑了全球变暖模式对降水变化的影响。模型模拟是通过模型比对项目（MIP）进行的，该项目由首席研究员（PI）组织，合作者包括东京大学、德国阿尔弗雷德·韦格纳研究所、国立台湾大学和韩国蔚山国立科学技术研究所。模拟使用模型配置的层次结构和专门的技术来隔离感兴趣的机制。这项工作是基于PI和其他人的早期研究，其中温室气体的辐射加热仅在特定纬度带中应用，其结果有些出乎意料，即赤道外加热对赤道海温增加的贡献大于赤道上的局部加热。其他实验使用“通量校正”技术来检验平均状态偏差对确定变暖型的影响，其动机是担心赤道太平洋海温中常见的冷偏差可能导致气候模式产生不正确的变暖型。这个职业方案的教育部分侧重于使用图形艺术作为气候科学传播的工具。该项目为当地媒体和图形艺术项目的学生举办了一系列研讨会，以开发科学的可视化来解释与夏威夷相关的气候变化影响。可视化，也被称为信息图表，是与当地K-12学校合作开发的，以反映社区对气候变化的关注。生成的信息图表分发到全州的学校，以帮助提高科学素养。平面设计概念也介绍给研究生在一个新的气候动力学类，以创建出版质量的科学插图的目标。信息图表研讨会旨在向STEM学科以外的学生介绍气候科学概念，其中许多人是夏威夷原住民和太平洋岛民。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The warming effect of greenhouse gases is global but not uniform over the globe, and regional differences in the warming have important consequences for climate change impacts. El Nino events provide a useful point of reference for the importance of differential warming over tropical oceans, as the warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific relative to the western Pacific causes disruptions in weather and climate worldwide. An assessment of future climate impacts over, say, the Southwest US, would have to take into account not only the magnitude of the warming of the tropical oceans but the pattern of the sea surface temperature (SST) increase. But despite considerable research a clear understanding of what the warming pattern should be and what factors determine it has not yet emerged. In particular, it is not clear how much the SST difference between the tropics and subtropics will change and wether the warming pattern in the Pacific will look more like El Nino or La Nina (with greater warming in the western Pacific).Research conducted under this award addresses the warming pattern using a suite of climate model experiments to identify the physical mechanisms that influence the SST warming pattern and its possible evolution over time. Further work considers the implications of the warming pattern for precipitation changes around the world. The model simulations are performed through a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) organized by the Principal Investigator (PI) and involving collaborators at the University of Tokyo, the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, National Taiwan University, and the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology in South Korea. The simulations use a hierarchy of model configurations and specialized techniques to isolate mechanisms of interest. The work is based on an earlier study by the PI and others in which radiative heating by greenhouse gases was applied only in specific latitude bands, with the somewhat unexpected result that off-equatorial heating made a greater contribution to equatorial SST increase than local heating over the equator. Additional experiments use the "flux correction" technique to examine the effect of mean state bias in determining the warming pattern, motivated by concerns that the commonly occurring cold bias in equatorial Pacific SSTs could cause climate models to produce an incorrect warming pattern.The educational component of this CAREER proposal focuses on the use of graphic art as a tool for climate science communication. The project convenes a series of workshops for students in local media and graphic arts programs to develop scientific visualizations to explain climate change impacts relevant to Hawai'i. The visualizations, also known as infographics, are developed in partnership with local K-12 schools to reflect community concerns regarding climate change. The resulting infographics are distributed throughout schools across the state to help increase science literacy. Graphic design concepts are also introduced to graduate students in a new climate dynamics class, with the goal of creating publication-quality scientific illustrations. The infographics workshops serve to introduce climate science concepts to students outside STEM disciplines, many of whom are Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.