D-ISN: Evolution of Global Illicit Kidney Trade Networks: Identification, Reconstruction, and Disruption

这个破坏非法供应网络运作（D-ISN）项目的目的是了解全球非法肾脏贸易网络的复杂动态。尽管近年来对这类犯罪的关注日益增加，但与其他类型的贩运网络相比，对肾脏贩运的研究明显不足。然而，先前的证据表明，在一个国家打击肾脏贩运将不可避免地增加其他国家的器官贩运。从这个意义上说，了解肾脏贩运网络的演变过程对于在世界范围内有效控制非法移植尤为重要。因此，该项目的最终目标是为模拟跨国肾脏贸易网络的演变提供一个总体框架，从而能够探索有效的中断策略。该项目采用了一套多学科方法，包括基于逆优化的新型估计程序、用于处理网络中未观察到的活动的动态链接预测模型，以及用于解决众多不确定性来源的随机模拟模型，并允许测试潜在的干预策略，以破坏未来的网络演变。这些方法将参考从各种来源获得的数据，包括公开网和暗网、各国在线新闻文章以及国际组织公开提供的世界统计数据。整合这些方法的分析框架将用于：1)预测未来跨国肾脏追踪网络的发展；2)识别这些网络的共同模式和作用机制；3)研究破坏此类网络增长的最佳策略。与器官贩运和移植旅游专家的合作将使项目小组能够微调研究成果，以便在现实世界中实施所建议的战略。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The objective of this Disrupting Operations of Illicit Supply Networks (D-ISN) project is to understand the complex dynamics of global illicit kidney trade networks. Kidney trafficking is significantly understudied compared to other types of trafficking networks, despite the rising concern about this type of crime in recent years. Prior evidence, however, suggests that combating kidney trafficking in one country will inevitably raise organ trafficking in other countries. In this sense, understanding the course of kidney trafficking network evolution is particularly important for effective control of illegal transplants worldwide. Thus, the end goal of the project is to provide a general framework for modeling the evolution of transnational kidney trade networks, which, in turn, enables the exploration of effective disruption strategies.The project uses a multidisciplinary set of methods that include novel estimation procedures based on inverse optimization, dynamic link prediction models for handling unobserved activity in the networks, and stochastic simulation models to address the numerous sources of uncertainty and to allow the testing of potential intervention strategies for disruption of future network evolution. These methods will be informed by data obtained from various sources including open and dark web, online news articles across countries, as well as world statistics that are publicly available from international organizations. The analytical framework that integrates these methods will be used to: 1) predict the evolution of future transnational kidney tracking networks; 2) identify common patterns and mechanisms of actions of such networks; and 3) investigate optimal strategies to disrupt the growth of such networks. The collaboration with organ trafficking and transplant tourism experts will allow the project team to fine-tune the research outputs for real-world implementation of recommended strategies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.