Collaborative Research: P2C2--Reconstructing Southern Rocky Mountains Warm Season Temperature for the Past 2000 Years

这项研究的总体目标是利用来自格兰德河源头地区的狐尾松来重建2,000年来的温度，并增加更新和新的水文气候重建，以评估长期的区域温度和水文气候关系。异常温暖的夏季温度通过增加蒸散率和减少土壤湿度来减少径流，其影响持续到冬季和夏季。然而，人们对最近变暖对上格兰德河流量的影响程度存在分歧。该项目将使用仪器数据集、更新的格兰德河径流重建和当地降水重建来解决径流效率（成为径流的降水比例）随时间的变化，以评估干旱和多雨期间温度在调节径流效率中的作用。格兰德河为200多万英亩的农业和600多万人提供地表水。主要支持农业和农村经济，格兰德河也服务于城市中心，包括阿尔伯克基，埃尔帕索和华雷斯城。持续的干旱导致了严重的水资源短缺，然而与上游的科罗拉多河流域相比，格兰德河一直没有得到充分的研究，这可能是由于该河所服务的社区代表性差的比例。该项目旨在通过与上格兰德河水资源利益相关者接触，将古气候信息付诸实践，以了解他们的供水和管理问题。潜在的更广泛影响包括更好地了解美国西南部的水资源，支持博士后研究人员，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为是值得支持的，使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估。

The general goal of the research is to use bristlecone pine from the Rio Grande Headwaters region to develop a temperature reconstruction spanning 2,000 years, augmented with updated and new hydroclimate reconstructions, to evaluate long-term, regional temperature and hydroclimate relationships.Anomalously warm summer temperatures reduce runoff by increasing the rates of evapotranspiration and by decreasing soil moisture, which has a persistent effect into winter and the following summer. However, there is disagreement to the extent to which recent warming has influenced upper Rio Grande flows. This project will address changes in runoff efficiency (the proportion of precipitation that becomes runoff) over time using instrumental datasets, an updated Rio Grande streamflow reconstruction, and a local precipitation reconstruction to assess the role of temperature in modulating runoff efficiency during droughts and pluvials.The Rio Grande supplies surface water to over 2 million acres of agriculture and over 6 million people. Predominantly supporting agriculture and rural economies, the Rio Grande also serves urban centers including Albuquerque, El Paso, and Ciudad Juárez. Ongoing drought has led to severe water shortages, yet the Rio Grande has been understudied compared to the upper Colorado River basin, possibly due to the proportion of poorly-represented communities the river serves. This project moves toward placing paleoclimate information into practice by engaging with upper Rio Grande water stakeholders in order to understand their water supply and management concerns.The potential Broader Impacts include greater understanding of water resources in the southwestern United States, support for a post-doctoral researcher, and substantive interaction with water resource managers and stakeholders in the region.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.