Collaborative Research: P2C2--Paleowind Synthesis of Models and Data to Constrain the Response of Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation to External Forcing

本项目旨在评估数值模式在模拟北半球近地面风方面的能力。近地面风是大尺度大气特征的一种地表表现，如由纵向（经向）和纬向（纬向）温度梯度变化驱动的驻波。在未来，由于温室气体浓度的上升，近地面风预计会随着温度和大气环流的变化而变化。然而，对未来近地面风的预估显示，这些模式之间存在很大的不确定性。研究人员建议通过过去的气候数据-模式综合来评估这种不确定性，以评估模式对观测数据之外的气候驱动因素响应的保真度。通过对末次盛冰期（LGM）的研究，数据综合和数据模型比较有可能增强对北半球风速和驻波变化驱动因素的理解。此外，它可能有助于发现可能延伸到未来气候驱动因素的模式偏差。该项目潜在的更广泛的影响包括风代理记录的新应用，以促进对过去大气环流的理解，并改善未来风变率的预测。该项目将生成北半球古风数据综合，供科学界使用，并将向公众开放。通过这项研究获得的风向和风速方面的知识可能与未来的风能资源有关。该研究将从风成气候档案中为LGM提供北半球温带古风向的新合成。根据LGM年代学推断的黄土和沙丘古风向将与参加第三和第四次古气候模拟比较项目的一般环流模式（GCMs）的LGM模拟的近地面风向进行分类比较，并与LGM时期的瞬态气候演化和同位素驱动的瞬态气候演化（Trace-21k和iTrace）实验进行比较。这种比较将使研究人员能够根据数据模型一致性的大小来评估排名最高和排名最低的模型中的大气环流指标。将考虑数据模型的一致性和驻波特性，进一步与已知的驻波温度控制进行比较，例如赤道到极点的温度梯度和海陆对比，以评估潜在的模式偏差。单次强迫实验、不同冰盖模式实验和瞬态冰解模拟将揭示单个强迫因子和冰盖地形对LGM近地表风向和驻波特性的影响。该项目将支持两名女性研究人员的职业生涯和一名研究生的科学培训。此外，研究人员将参与外展活动，重点是为参加伊利诺伊州香槟市当地STEAM（科学、技术、工程、艺术和数学）工作室课后项目的小学生开发和实施一个新的教育模块。在这个关于天气和气候的新模块中，重点是风。在为期六周的模块学习期间，20名五年级学生将获得手持隼1000风仪器，用于在一天中不同时间和不同地点测量风。学生们将用自己的测量结果与研究人员讨论天气，特别是风速和风向如何每天变化。这个模块的顶点将是实地考察当地的双格罗夫斯风电场，埃尔斯沃思，伊利诺伊州（西部香槟，伊利诺伊州）为教育导游。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to evaluate numerical model skill in simulating near-surface winds in the Northern hemisphere. Near-surface winds are a surface manifestation of large-scale atmospheric features such as stationary waves which are driven by changes in longitudinal (Meridional) and latitudinal (zonal) temperature gradients. In the future, near-surface winds are expected to change in response to changes in temperature and atmospheric circulation as driven by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. However, projections of future near surface winds show a large uncertainty between the models. The researchers propose to evaluate this uncertainty via past climate data-model synthesis to assess the fidelity of model response to climate drivers outside the observational data. By investigating the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period, the data synthesis and data-model comparison can potentially enhance the understanding of the factors driving changes in Northern hemisphere wind speeds and stationary waves. Further, it can potentially aid to detect model biases that may extend to future climate drivers. The potential Broader Impacts of this project include a novel application of wind proxy records to advance the understanding of past atmospheric circulation and improve future projections of wind variability. This project will generate a paleowind data synthesis in the Northern Hemisphere that will be available for the scientific community and will be publicly accessible. The gained knowledge through this research in terms of wind direction and gustiness can be potentially relevant to future wind energy resources.The proposed research will produce a new synthesis of Northern Hemisphere, extratropical paleowind direction for the LGM from aeolian climate archives. Inferred paleowind direction from loess and dunes chronologically constrained to the LGM will be categorically compared to near-surface wind directions from the LGM simulations of the general circulation models (GCMs) participating the third and fourth Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Projects and the LGM periods of the Transient Climate Evolution and isotope-enabled Transient Climate Evolution (Trace-21k and iTrace) experiments. This comparison will allow the researchers to evaluate metrics for general atmospheric circulation in the top and bottom-ranking models based on the magnitude of data-model agreement. A further comparison with known temperature controls on stationary waves, e.g., the equator to pole temperature gradient and the ocean-land contrast, will be examined considering data-model agreement and stationary wave properties to assess potential model biases. Simulations from single forcing experiments, experiments using different ice sheet models, and the transient deglacial simulation will reveal the role of individual forcing factors and ice sheet orography in setting LGM near-surface wind direction and stationary wave properties. The project will support the careers of two female researchers and the scientific training of one graduate student. Additionally, the researchers will engage in outreach activities that will focus on developing and implementing a new education module for elementary students attending the local STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Math) Studio afterschool program in Champaign, IL. In this new module on weather and climate, with an emphasis on wind, the 20-member 5th grade student class will be given handheld Kestrel 1000 wind instruments to measure wind at different times of day and in different locations during a 6-week module period. The students will discuss with the researchers how weather and particularly, wind speed and direction changes from day to day using their own measurements. The capstone of this module will be a field trip to the local Twin Groves Wind Farm, Ellsworth, IL (west of Champaign, IL) for an educational guided tour.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.