DISES: Co-produced modeling of socio-environmental dynamics of financialized forestlands and alternative future scenarios

这项研究解决了缅因州北部森林过去的社会环境动态和未来的轨迹。在20世纪的大部分时间里，缅因州北部的林地由综合林产品公司所有，但最近，由于新的公司林地组织的出现，主要是房地产投资信托基金（REITs）和木材投资管理组织（timo），它们的所有权发生了变化。在所有权发生变化的同时，森林正被纳入州一级气候政策的碳解决方案。该项目的研究人员将直接与缅因州的政策制定者、部落和非部落森林使用者以及其他关键利益相关者合作，分析林地所有权转变的社会和生态后果。这些利益攸关方将被纳入参与性讲习班，以评估这些林地在不同气候和政策情景下的可能轨迹。生态分析和未来设想将使用空间科学工具进行，这些工具以前已应用于新英格兰其他地方的家庭森林动态。该项目的结果将是更好地了解林地所有权转变的社会和生态后果，以及主要利益相关者参与评估这些土地的未来。该项目是将金融化林地作为综合社会环境系统进行分析的首次重大努力。这项研究的重点是金融化林地，金融化林地被定义为由木材投资管理组织（timo）和房地产投资信托基金（REITs）等金融投资者拥有和管理的林地，这些投资者在全国范围内总共拥有和管理着超过2000万公顷的林地。研究工作整合了定性社会科学、基于遥感的土地变化检测和参与式情景模拟建模方法，共同阐明了驱动林地系统动态的反馈和因果关系。将开发代表三十年森林金融化后果的空间和因果过程模型，然后用于共同设计未来景观情景，供关键利益相关者进行协同评估。通过将LandTrendr工具应用于经历所有权转换的景观，该研究建立在土地探测技术的进步基础上。它还建立在哈佛森林开发的情景建模工具的基础上，这些工具先前已应用于新英格兰的家庭拥有的森林景观和全球其他森林系统。社会科学部分包括一个多标量数据收集过程，为构建一个整合生态和社会政治变量的因果过程模型提供信息。通过调查人类行为者（金融公司高管、中层治理行为者、部落和非部落森林使用者）与环境模式和进程（森林条件、干扰、物种分布和碳平衡）之间的关系，本研究将推进土地系统科学，并确定影响系统变化的杠杆点。研究工作将集中在缅因州的林地上，以便建立特定地点和更普遍的模型。该研究将提供空间和社会经济方面的综合见解，为有关这些土地未来所有权和管理的政策和实践审议提供信息。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research addresses the past socio-environmental dynamics and future trajectories of forests in northern Maine. Timberlands in northern Maine were owned by integrated forest products companies for much of the twentieth century, but more recently their ownership has changed as a result of the emergence of new corporate timberland organizations, principally Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Timber Investment Management Organizations (TIMOs). This ownership change comes at the same time that forests are being included as carbon solutions in state-level climate policies. The researchers on this project will work directly with Maine’s policymakers, tribal and non-tribal forest users, and other key stakeholders to analyze the social and ecological consequences of the timberland ownership transition. These same stakeholders will be included in participatory workshops to assess possible trajectories of these forestlands under different climate and policy scenarios. Ecological analyses and future scenarios will be conducted using spatial science tools that have previously been applied to family forest dynamics elsewhere in New England. The result of this project will be a better understanding of the social and ecological consequences of the timberland ownership transition and the engagement of key stakeholders in assessing the future of these lands.This project is the first major effort to analyze financialized timberlands as integrated socio-environmental systems. The research focuses on financialized timberlands, defined as those owned and managed by financial investors such as the timber investment management organizations (TIMOs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs) that collectively own and manage over 20 million hectares of forestland nationwide. Research efforts integrate qualitative social science, remote sensing-based land change detection, and participatory scenario simulation modeling methods that collectively illuminate the feedback and causal relationships driving timberland system dynamics. Spatial and causal process models representing the consequences of three decades of forest financialization will be developed, then used to co-design future landscape scenarios for collaborative evaluation by key stakeholders. The research builds upon advances in land detection technologies via application of the LandTrendr tool to landscapes that have undergone ownership transitions. It also builds upon scenario modeling tools developed by Harvard Forest that have previously been applied to family-owned forested landscapes in New England and to other forest systems worldwide. The social science component includes a multi-scalar data collection process to inform construction of a causal process model that integrates ecological and sociopolitical variables. By investigating the relationships among human actors (financial firm executives, mid-level governance actors, and tribal and non-tribal forest users) and environmental patterns and processes (forest conditions, disturbances, species distributions, and carbon balances), this research will advance land system science and identify leverage points for effecting systemic change. Research efforts will focus on timberlands in Maine in order to build both place-specific and more generalizable models. The research will provide combined spatial and socioeconomic insights to inform policy and practice deliberations regarding the future ownership and management of these lands.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.