Collaborative Research: ORCC: The Interplay of Plasticity and Evolution in Pierid Butterfly Responses to Recent Climate Change

植物和动物以各种不同的方式应对最近的气候变化，突显出需要确定可能导致似乎不可预测的反应的生物机制。将这些机制纳入生态和进化预测模型，对于准确预测气候变化对生物多样性的影响至关重要。昆虫数量的急剧下降，包括美国西部的蝴蝶数量，加强了对与生物多样性、农业和维持授粉等生态系统服务相关的保护规划的预测的必要性。昆虫种群会迁徙、灭绝，还是能够适应未来的气候变化？研究人员将对Pierid蝴蝶重复历史的实验室和野外实验，以询问与温度反应相关的幼虫和成虫特征的进化和发育可塑性是否与最近的气候变化保持同步。建模资源将通过“沟渠”项目传播，该项目提供计算和可视化工具，将环境变化转化为生物体的反应。受训者将把研究转化为具有交互式数据可视化的基于战壕的查询模块。研讨会将向高中和本科教师介绍这些资源。这项拟议的研究将部分通过以课程为基础的本科生研究经历(CURE)在一所学生群体多样化的社区大学进行。课程将向学生介绍植物和动物生物学的相关概念以及研究过程。一些学生将在暑期继续进行研究和职业发展培训，以帮助他们过渡到四年制大学并保留他们的理科。这项研究将通过量化蝴蝶温度在几十年内的变化，并开发一个将温度变化和特征与生态和进化反应联系起来的机制模型，来确定进化和塑料对气候变化反应的生物学机制。接下来的研究将测试预测的驱动进化的机制，并完善该模型。重复的田间选择研究将调查菜粉蝶幼虫热性能曲线(TPC)和西斑潜蝇成虫身体大小和翅膀特征的选择是否随着时间的推移而发生变化。研究不同季节对几种翅膀性状的选择将表明对热手段与极端条件的相对选择性反应，并分析选择是否随季节变化。这项研究将确定选择是否会导致幼虫TPC和成虫特征及其可塑性的进化。该项目将测试与最近变暖有关的几个假说。与过去相比，高温下的性能将得到提高。在避免高温的姿势中，翅膀的颜色会更浅。与晒太阳有关的翅膀颜色可能会因气候变暖而变浅，但也可能会选择变暗的翅膀，以便在凉爽的早期季节条件下表现出来。这些相反的选择压力将导致选择和可塑性增强的选择的季节变化放大。这项研究还将评估遗传相关性和变异是否限制了进化，以及它们是否随着时间的推移而改变。这项研究将进一步开发和测试基于表型的模型，以解决气候变化生物学中的不可预测性问题。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Plants and animals have responded to recent climate change in a variety of different ways, highlighting the need to identify the biological mechanisms that can result in seemingly unpredictable responses. Incorporating the mechanisms into ecological and evolutionary forecasting models is essential to accurately project the biodiversity consequences of climate change. Dramatic insect declines, including of butterflies in the Western US, reinforce the need to improve forecasts for conservation planning related to biodiversity, agriculture, and the maintenance of ecosystem services such as pollination. Will insect populations move, go extinct, or be able to adapt to future climate change? Researchers will repeat historical lab and field experiments with Pierid butterflies to ask whether evolution and developmental plasticity of larval and adult traits relevant to thermal responses have kept pace with recent climate change. Modeling resources will be disseminated through the ‘TrEnCh’ project, which provides computational and visualization tools to Translate Environmental Change into organismal responses. Trainees will translate the research into TrEnCh-Ed inquiry-based modules with interactive data visualizations. Workshops will introduce these resources to high school and undergraduate teachers. The proposed research will partially be conducted via course-based undergraduate research experiences (CUREs) at a community college with a diverse student body. The CUREs will introduce students to relevant concepts in plant and animal biology and to the research process. Some students will continue research and professional development training in the summer to facilitate their transition to a 4-year college and their retention in science. The research will identify the biological mechanisms underlying evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change by quantifying how butterfly temperatures have shifted over several decades and developing a mechanistic model that links the temperature changes and traits to ecological and evolutionary responses. The following studies will test the mechanisms predicted to drive evolution and refine the model. Repeating field selection studies will investigate whether selection on Pieris rapae larval thermal performance curves (TPCs) and on Pontia occidentalis adult body size and wing traits has shifted over time. Studying selection on several wing traits across seasons will indicate relative selective responses to thermal means versus extremes and assay whether selection varies seasonally. The research will determine whether selection results in evolution of larval TPCs as well as adult traits and their plasticity. The project will test several hypotheses related to recent warming. Performance at high temperatures will be enhanced relative to the past. Wing coloration involved in heat-avoidance postures will be lighter. Wing coloration involved in basking may lighten in response to climate warming, but there may be selection for wing darkening to allow for performance in cool, early season conditions. These opposing selection pressures will lead to amplified seasonal variation in selection and selection for increased plasticity. The research will additionally assess whether genetic correlations and variation have constrained evolution and whether they have shifted over time. The research will further develop and test phenotype-based models to solve the problem of unpredictability in climate change biology.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.