Collaborative Research: BoCP-Implementation: Biodiversity and stability on a changing planet: plant traits and interactions that stabilize or destabilize ecosystems and populations

极端气候事件和生物多样性丧失正在破坏生态系统的稳定。植物生产力的变异性逐年增加，可能威胁到依赖植物生产力的生态系统服务的可靠供应，包括粮食生产和气候调节。此外，极端气候事件和其他一些全球环境变化（例如，氮沉降和大气中二氧化碳浓度上升）可能使个别物种的种群不稳定，可能威胁到它们的持久性。物种特征可以决定对全球变化的反应并影响稳定性。然而，目前尚不清楚全球变化如何通过生态和进化反应改变植物物种的特征和相互作用，从而使生态系统和种群稳定或不稳定。此外，目前尚不可能根据对抵抗力和复原力的短期估计来预测长期不变性，也不可能在干旱等扰动发生之前预测生态系统和人口对这些扰动的抵抗力。通过理论建模和生态学与进化实验，这项工作将评估物种特征对社区抵抗力和恢复力的影响，面对环境变化。此外，该项目将（1）让来自城市和农村社区的K-12学生和教师实地考察实地研究地点;（2）开发科学工具包和课程，供K-12教室使用;（3）为本科生，研究生和博士后学者提供研究培训和指导。该项目正在开发和测试一个综合的预测框架，以考虑全球变化如何以稳定或破坏种群或生态系统的方式推动植物性状的生态和进化变化。拟议的项目将：（1）测试关于不变性如何取决于其抵抗力和恢复力成分的新理论预测;（2）确定不变性，抵抗力和恢复力如何取决于植物物种性状和物种相互作用;（3）进行新的温室和田间实验，使用从正在进行的长期实验中收集的种子，以确定进化如何改变物种的性状，抵抗力，恢复力和不变性;以及（4）通过综合工作组扩展到其他草原和森林，并扩展到更大的空间尺度，以测试关于不变性对其抗性和恢复力成分的依赖性的理论预测，以及不变性，抗性和恢复力如何依赖于植物物种性状。这项工作的大部分使用来自BioDIV和BioCON的数据和种子，这是世界上运行时间最长的生物多样性实验。这些实验完全交叉生物多样性的治疗与几个全球变化的治疗（变暖，干旱，升高的CO2，和/或丰富的N），允许测试生态进化的反应，在存在或不存在的植物物种相互作用的全球变化。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过评估使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准的支持。

Extreme climate events and biodiversity loss are destabilizing ecosystems. Increases in the variability of plant productivity from one year to the next could threaten the reliable supply of ecosystem services that depend on plant productivity, which include food production and climate regulation. Furthermore, extreme climate events and some other global environmental changes (e.g., nitrogen deposition and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations) could destabilize populations of individual species, potentially threatening their persistence. Species traits can determine responses to global change and influence stability. It remains unclear, however, how global changes are shifting plant species’ traits and interactions, through ecological and evolutionary responses, in ways that could stabilize or destabilize ecosystems and populations. Furthermore, it is not yet possible to predict long-term invariability from short-term estimates of resistance and resilience or to forecast the resistance of ecosystems and populations to perturbations, such as droughts, prior to their occurrence. Through theoretical modeling and ecological and evolutionary experiments this work will evaluate the effects of species traits on community resistance and resilience the face of environmental change. In addition, the project will (1) engage K-12 students and teachers from urban and rural communities on field trips to the field research site; (2) develop science kits and lessons for use in K-12 classrooms; and (3) provide research training and mentoring for undergraduate students, graduate students, and postdoctoral scholars. This project is developing and testing an integrated and predictive framework for considering how global changes are driving ecological and evolutionary shifts in plant traits in ways that can stabilize or destabilize populations or ecosystems. The proposed projects will: (1) test new theoretical predictions regarding how invariability depends on its resistance and resilience components; (2) determine how invariability, resistance, and resilience depend on plant species traits and species interactions; (3) conduct new greenhouse and field experiments, using seeds collected from ongoing long-term experiments, to determine how evolution has altered species’ traits, resistance, resilience, and invariability; and (4) scale out to other grasslands and forests and up to larger spatial scales to test theoretical predictions regarding dependence of invariability on its resistance and resilience components, and how invariability, resistance, and resilience depend on plant species traits through a synthesis working group. Much of this work uses data and seeds from BioDIV and BioCON, the world’s longest-running biodiversity experiments. These experiments fully cross biodiversity treatments with several global change treatments (warming, drought, elevated CO2, and/or enriched N), allowing tests of eco-evolutionary responses to global changes in the presence or absence of plant species interactions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.