BoCP-Design: Developing network-based models to evaluate functional biodiversity responses to climate change and species invasions

海洋生物群落包含多种相互作用形成动态网络的物种。这些网络深刻地塑造了物种和海洋生态系统功能的共存。气候变化和物种入侵在全球范围内威胁着这些网络。预测海洋群落如何应对这些变化是具有挑战性的，因为它们造成的干扰会以意想不到的方式影响相互交织的网络。此外，海洋生物可能会适应这些扰动。例如，它们可能会适应以新物种为食，更好地抵御捕食者，或者更有效地从洋流中吸收营养。该项目将开发新的模型来预测环境变化如何影响生物体以及它们如何适应这些变化。这些模型将整合世界上三个最具生产力的海岸——加利福尼亚海岸、智利海岸和南非海岸的经验数据和化石记录。这些海洋群落的化石记录将为这些群落几千年前如何应对气候变化和物种入侵的模型提供信息。该项目还将每年为早期职业科学家提供一次研讨会。该项目还通过促进科学多元文化视角中心支持多样性倡议。该项目将汇集来自网络生态学、海洋学、古生物学、进化论、理论生态学和群落生态学等领域的科学家。他们将共同开发新的网络模型，以评估对气候变化和物种入侵的功能特征反应如何影响海洋生态系统对多种环境压力源的抵抗力和恢复力。在生态时间尺度上，该项目将利用生物和物理变量的长期数据。在进化的时间尺度上，该项目将利用历史古生物学记录，这些记录显示了气候变化和物种入侵在塑造这些系统的功能生物多样性中的作用的有力证据。这些模型将使科学界能够在生态和进化的时间尺度上测试关于功能性生物多样性如何从有机体到生态系统水平对环境变化作出反应的假设。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Marine biological communities contain multiple species that interact to form dynamic networks. These networks profoundly shape the coexistence of species and function of marine ecosystems. Climate change and species invasions threaten these networks at planetary scales. Predicting how marine communities respond to these changes is challenging because the disturbances they cause can affect the interwoven networks in unexpected ways. In addition, marine organisms may adapt to those perturbations. For example, they may adapt to eat new species, be better defended from predators, or to assimilate nutrients more effectively from oceanic currents. This project will develop new models to predict how environmental changes influence organisms and how they adapt to those changes. These models will integrate empirical data and the fossil record of three of the most productive coasts in the world,- the Californian, Chilean, and South African coast. The fossil record of these marine communities will inform the models of how these communities responded to climate change and species invasions thousands of years ago. This project will also offer workshops for early career scientists once a year. This project also supports diversity initiatives through the Center for the Advancement of Multicultural Perspectives on Science.This project will bring together scientists from the fields of network ecology, oceanography, paleontology, evolution, theoretical ecology, and community ecology. Together, they will develop new network models to evaluate how functional-trait responses to climate change and species invasions may affect the resistance and resilience of marine ecosystems to multiple environmental stressors. At ecological timescales, this project will leverage long-term data of biological and physical variables. At evolutionary timescales, this project will leverage the historical paleontological record, which shows strong evidence of the role of climate change and species invasions in shaping the functional biodiversity of these systems. These models will allow the scientific community to test hypotheses on how functional biodiversity responds to environmental change from the organismal to the ecosystem level, at ecological and evolutionary timescales.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.