EAGER: Towards an understanding of responses to climate change in drylands of the Southwest United States and northern Mexico: a climate change and invasion vulnerability analysis.

由于种种原因，许多两栖动物（主要是青蛙和蝾螈）正面临灭绝。因为它们至少有一部分时间需要潮湿的环境，所以炎热和干燥的环境是一个很大的威胁。这种情况正变得越来越普遍，对生活在缺水地区的两栖动物来说尤其成问题。第二个威胁是非本地物种进入曾经是本地两栖动物大本营的栖息地。非本地物种可以吃掉本地物种的卵和幼崽，或者只是为了争夺资源而与它们竞争。该项目将研究气候变化和非本地物种如何共同威胁美国西南部旱地的本地两栖动物物种。研究结果将对两栖动物种群的管理至关重要，尤其是在两栖动物稀少的地区。研究人员将确定重要的保护区和最有可能被非本地物种入侵的地区。本研究将结合地理空间技术，如物种分布模型和基于特征的排序方法，以：(1)评估两栖动物物种对当前和预测的气候变化的相对脆弱性；(2)识别对非本地物种入侵的高脆弱性区域；(3)全面评估气候变化和非本地物种如何影响本地两栖动物栖息地的适宜性。这一提议将为生态学、生物地理学和保护生物学开辟一个令人兴奋的新领域。具体而言，这将是第一个整合气候变化敏感性分析和入侵脆弱性评估，并调查气候变化对两栖动物保护区分布的影响。这项研究将建立一个框架，将显著改善两栖动物分布的现状，同时也为决策者提供全面的信息和分析，以保存和保护濒危和受威胁的两栖动物物种及其栖息地。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Many amphibians (mostly frogs and salamanders) are facing extinction for a variety of reasons. Because they require a wet or moist environment for at least part of their lives, hotter and drier conditions are a big threat. Such conditions are becoming more common and are especially problematic for amphibians living in areas that had little water to start with. A second threat are non-native species moving into habitats that were once the stronghold of native amphibians. The non-native species can eat the eggs and young of native species or simply outcompete them for resources. This project will examine how a changing climate and non-native species combine to threaten native species of amphibians in the drylands of the southwestern United States. Results will be critical for management of amphibian populations, especially in areas where they were already rare. Researchers will identify important areas for conservation and areas that are most likely to be invaded by non-native species.This research will combine geospatial techniques, such as species distribution modeling, and a trait-based ranking methodology to: (1) assess amphibian species’ relative vulnerability to current and projected climate change, (2) identify areas with high vulnerability to invasion by non-native species, and (3) provide an overall assessment of how climate change and non-native species will affect the suitability of habitat for native amphibians. This proposal will open an exciting new realm of inquiry for ecology, biogeography, and conservation biology. Specifically, it will be the first to integrate a climate change susceptibility analysis and assessment of vulnerability to invasions, and to investigate the effect of climate change on the distribution of areas for conservation of amphibians. This research will create a framework that will significantly improve the current state of knowledge on amphibian distributions, while also providing comprehensive information and analyses for decision-makers to conserve and protect endangered and threatened amphibian species and their habitats.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.