CAREER: Hydrogeologic implications of permafrost thaw - Developing a process-based understanding of biophysical controls and educational tools for rural communities

北极地区不断上升的气温正在导致被称为永久冻土的冻土融化。随着永久冻土的融化，液态水可以更容易地在地下流动，增加了新鲜地下水的可用性。对于生活在永久冻土之上的数百万人来说，增加地下水的可用性是有益的，因为地下水比地表水更不易受污染。尽管冻土融化和地下水流动之间存在已知的联系，但在大规模地下水研究中，冻土地区往往被排除在外或过于简化，这在我们对气候变暖如何影响水资源的知识中造成了严重的空白。该项目将整合多年冻土景观，数值模型和统计分析收集的数据，以生成关于北极气温变暖如何影响地下水可用性的概念框架。结果将用于创建一个永久冻土水文教育模块，为农村阿拉斯加土著中学生作为阿拉斯加土著科学和工程计划的一部分，生产一本关于水文的儿童读物，以增加儿童的科学认同感，并通过开发新课程，让美国东南部农村地区公立主要本科院校的本科生接触永久冻土水文学，由于永久冻土融化和生物物理变化之间的非线性和不受约束的反馈，影响积雪分布和地面温度，如降雨极端变化，沉降微地形和灌木扩张，预测北极未来的地下水可用性是复杂的。为了应对这些挑战，本研究将（1）确定生物物理变化对永冻土地下水流量的作用，（2）通过将统计分析与现有空间分布的水文和遥感数据集提供信息的先进地下水永冻土数值模型相结合，量化地下水流量和可用性，以应对当前和未来的气候扰动。除了增加对北极地下水可用性的了解外，该项目的研究结果还将加强对饱和控制的二氧化碳和甲烷出口热点的了解，并有助于预测由于地下水流动而导致的北极基础设施崩溃风险。项目成果还将被阿拉斯加和美国东南部的农村教育合作伙伴、K12教育专家以及STEM、美术、和教育，为农村社区设计和传播教育活动。这个奖项是共同的-该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过评估被认为值得支持使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。

Increasing air temperatures in the Arctic are causing frozen ground known as permafrost to thaw. As permafrost thaws, liquid water can more easily travel below ground, increasing fresh groundwater availability. For the millions of people who live above permafrost, increase groundwater availability is beneficial as groundwater is less susceptible to contamination than surface water. Despite this known link between permafrost thaw and groundwater flow, permafrost regions are often excluded or oversimplified in large-scale groundwater studies, creating a critical gap in our knowledge of how climate warming will impact water resources. This project will integrate data collected across permafrost landscapes, numerical models, and statistical analyses to generate a conceptual framework on how warming air temperatures in the Arctic impact groundwater availability. Results will be used to create a permafrost hydrology educational module for rural Alaska Native middle school students as part of the Alaska Native Science and Engineering Program, to produce a children’s book about hydrology to increase a child’s sense of science identity, and expose undergraduate students at a public primarily undergraduate institution in the rural southeastern US to permafrost hydrology through the development of new courses, course modules, and training undergraduate researchers from underrepresented groups.Predicting future groundwater availability in the Arctic is complex due to nonlinear and unconstrained feedbacks between permafrost thaw and biophysical changes that affect snow distribution and ground temperatures, such as shifting rainfall extremes, subsiding microtopography, and shrub expansion. To address these challenges, this research will (1) determine the role of biophysical changes on groundwater flow in permafrost, and (2) quantify groundwater flow and availability in response to current and future climate perturbations by combining statistical analyses with an advanced groundwater-permafrost numerical model informed by existing spatially distributed hydrologic and remotely sensed data sets. In addition to increasing knowledge on groundwater availability in the Arctic, findings from this project will enhance understanding of saturation-controlled carbon dioxide and methane export hotspots and aid in anticipating at-risk Arctic infrastructure collapse due to groundwater flow. Project results will also be used by rural education partners in Alaska and the southeastern US, a K12 education specialist, and undergraduate students majoring in STEM, fine arts, and education to design and disseminate educational activities for rural communities.This award is co-funded by the Hydrologic Sciences and Artic Natural Sciences programsThis award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.