CAREER: Climate and connectivity as drivers of pathogen dynamics within and between urban plant populations

城市生活给动植物带来了许多挑战。道路和建筑将景观分成公园、庭院和花园中的小块植被。这些栖息地中的物种与人类和车辆密切接触。城市也比周边地区产生和吸收更多的热量。栖息地碎片化、人类活动和气候变暖都会对生物体的疾病风险产生影响。然而，目前尚不清楚这些因素如何改变疾病在城市系统中的传播。这一知识差距阻碍了对城市野生动物和植物疾病的预测和管理。为了填补这一空白，该项目将使用数学模型、实地研究和实验。在模型中，将模拟城市化和气候情景下的疾病传播。建模也将是本科生疾病生态学课程的一部分。实地研究和实验将集中在常见植物及其真菌病原体上。不同的本科生和高中生将参加密苏里州圣路易斯市气候和植物健康数据的收集。此外，城市公立学区的K-12学生将在学校花园进行一项实验。数据收集和分析活动将与学校STEM课程保持一致。城市化涉及栖息地碎片化和变暖，这可能会影响宿主与病原体相遇的频率和结果。然而，我们目前缺乏一个框架来预测疾病流行率随着气候变化和人口跨城市化梯度的连通性而发生的变化。这项拟议的研究将解决宏观气候、小气候和栖息地连通性如何影响城市化与疾病的关系。灵活的集合人口模型将被用来研究人口连通性和多尺度气候变化对理论城市及其周围地区疾病流行的影响。该模型将被纳入新的基于课程的本科生研究体验中。在实验室和田间研究中，小气候对植物寄主敏感性和叶片病原菌侵染性的影响将跨城市化梯度进行量化。将分析病原体的基因类型，以确定是更多的城市植物种群具有更大的越冬病原体存活率，还是更大的种群间传播率在生长季节。这项经验性的工作将与K-12 STEM推广和针对高中生和本科生的实地研究经验相结合。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Urban life presents many challenges for animals and plants. Roads and buildings divide the landscape into small patches of vegetation in parks, yards, and gardens. Species in those habitats are in close contact with humans and vehicles. Cities also produce and trap more heat than surrounding areas. Habitat fragmentation, human activity, and warming can each impact the risk of disease for organisms. However, it is unknown how these factors alter the spread of disease in urban systems. This knowledge gap hinders prediction and management of disease for urban wildlife and plants. To fill this gap, the project will use mathematical models, field studies, and experiments. In models, disease spread will be simulated under urbanization and climate scenarios. Modeling will also be part of projects in an undergraduate Disease Ecology course. Field studies and experiments will focus on common plants and their fungal pathogens. Diverse undergraduate and high school students will participate in data collection on climate and plant health across St. Louis, Missouri. In addition, K-12 students in an urban public school district will engage with an experiment in school gardens. Data collection and analysis activities will be aligned to school STEM curriculum.Urbanization involves habitat fragmentation and warming that can impact the frequency and outcome of host-pathogen encounters. Yet we currently lack a framework for predicting change in disease prevalence with variation in climate and population connectivity across urbanization gradients. The proposed research will resolve how macroclimate, microclimate, and habitat connectivity shape urbanization-disease relationships. Flexible metapopulation models will be used to study the influence of population connectivity and multiple scales of climate variation on disease prevalence across theoretical cities and their surroundings. The modeling will be incorporated into a new course-based undergraduate research experience. In laboratory and field studies, microclimate effects on plant host susceptibility and foliar pathogen infectivity will be quantified across an urbanization gradient. Pathogen genotypes will be analyzed to determine if more urban plant populations have greater pathogen survival overwinter or greater rates of between-population dispersal during the growing season. The empirical work will be integrated with K-12 STEM outreach and field research experiences for high school and undergraduate students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.