Demand Manifolds for Empirical Industrial Organization

关于工业集中度提高对收入不平等和价格上涨的影响，一直存在一场公开辩论，这促使中国采取了更具干预性的反垄断政策，以防止进一步的市场整合。这种方法忽略了需求的性质在生产者将成本增加转嫁给消费者的能力中所起的作用。这项研究将使用三个项目来研究需求曲线在企业将不断增加的成本以更高的消费者价格形式转嫁给消费者的能力中所起的作用。这项研究将表明，生产者可以在多大程度上将成本增加转嫁给消费者，这取决于需求曲线的形状。这项研究还提供了一种新的更好的方法来衡量需求曲线的形状，以及在什么条件下生产商可以将成本增加转嫁给消费者。这一研究项目的结果将有助于更好地理解供应链中断是如何影响价格变化和通胀动态的。调查结果还为美国反垄断政策提供了更好的指导，并有助于将美国确立为反垄断政策的全球领导者。本研究使用三个项目来解决离散选择模型中的需求曲率问题。经济学家们倾向于使用混合Logit来适应相对于产品属性和价格的特殊偏好，因为它允许不受限制的替代模式。然而，该模型的曲率属性仍然未知。第一个项目探讨了消费者偏好的不同因素如何影响需求曲率，并表明只有价格随机系数才有影响，价格随机系数的分布是扩大离散选择模型中可估计曲率范围的关键。结果表明，识别需求曲率的关键是多产品企业在不同价格水平下共同成本转移的转移率。这些结果可以被扩展以适应准线性偏好模型中的人口统计和其他价格交互作用。第二个项目应用这种方法来研究更新酒类税对非竞争性白酒行业的影响，以展示这种方法如何导致对供应链中断的影响进行更准确的预测。第三个项目应用了第一个项目中的灵活建模，以评估更改偏好是否会影响需求曲率，从而影响长期加价。这一研究项目的结果将有助于更好地理解供应链中断是如何影响价格变化和通胀动态的。这一结果还为美国反垄断政策提供了更好的指导，并有助于建立美国在反垄断政策方面的全球领先地位。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

There has been a public debate over the effect of increased industrial concentration on income inequality and price increases, inspiring a more interventionist antitrust policy that prevents further market consolidation. This approach ignores the role of the nature of demand in producers’ ability of producers to shift cost increases unto consumers. This research will use three projects to study what role the curvature of the demand plays in firms’ ability pass increasing cost unto consumers in the form of higher consumer prices. This research will show that the degree to which producers can shift cost increases on to consumers depends on the shape of the demand curve. The research also provides a new and better way of measuring the shape of the demand curve as well as under what conditions producers can shift cost increases to consumers. The results of this research project will provide a better understanding of how supply chain disruption affect price changes and inflation dynamics. The results also provide a better guide to US anti-trust policies as well as help to establish the US a global leader in anti-trust policies. This research uses three projects to address demand curvature in discrete choice models. Economists have favored the use of mixed logit to accommodate idiosyncratic preferences over product attributes and price because it allows for unrestricted substitution patterns. However, the curvature properties of this model remain unknown. The first project explores how different elements of consumer preferences condition demand curvature and shows that only price random coefficient has any influence, and that the distribution of price random coefficients is key to expanding the range of estimable curvature in discrete choice models. The results show that the key to identifying demand curvature is the pass-through rates of common cost shifts at different price levels for multi-product firms. These results can be extended to accommodate demographic- and other price interactions in quasi-linear preferences models. The second project applies this methodology to study the impact of updating alcohol taxes on the noncompetitive liquor industry to show how the methodology leads to more accurate predictions of the effects of supply chain disruptions. The third project applies the flexible modelling in the first project to evaluate whether changing preferences affect demand curvature, hence secular markups. The results of this research project will provide a better understanding of how supply chain disruption affect price changes and inflation dynamics. The results also provide a better guide to US anti-trust policies as well as help to establish the US a global leader in anti-trust policies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.