Postdoctoral Fellowship: EAR-PF: Using paleogeography and the fossil record to characterize the influence of scale on species range trajectories

物种的范围，或物种在地理空间中生活的地方，可以提供关于其在生态系统中和跨景观的角色的信息。物种范围受到许多因素的影响，包括气候变化、生态系统和群落的变化以及人为影响。然而，物种在地质时间尺度上(例如，跨越数百万年)的动态还没有完全被理解。此外，由于过去的构造变化和气候变化对物种范围的影响，随着时间的推移，物种范围的研究变得复杂。该项目由牛津大学进行，由Erin Saupe博士提供建议，探索了许多不同地理范围和物种类型的物种范围大小的长期变化。它的目的是量化物种范围如何在多个时间尺度上波动，评估构造和气候如何影响这些波动，并研究物种之间的关联性和遗传性如何驱动这种动态。该项目将提供新的途径，探讨如何随着时间的推移维持生物多样性，并将有助于在地球历史和生命历史之间建立另一种联系。在这个项目中，研究人员将为几个旨在增加学术界多样性的项目做出贡献，并向学生介绍地质学和古生物学科学研究的整个过程。这些项目包括纳菲尔德研究安置项目，这是一个为期一个月的项目，让学生开发和回答自己的研究问题，以及UNIQ项目，它资助来自不同社区和缺乏服务的高中生，让他们在自己感兴趣的领域参加短期课程。通过这些倡议，该项目旨在促进关于地球科学在我们不断变化的世界中的极端重要性的讨论，并激励一批敬业的地球科学家。随着我们进入人类世，前所未有的气候和景观变化正在导致全球灭绝和许多物种范围的重组(Barnosky等人)。2011年)。了解物种范围如何随着地质时间的变化而变化，可以提供对这些当前和预测的未来变化的洞察。此外，对物种范围从起源到灭绝的动态变化进行分类，可以提高保护组织和政府识别和保护可能面临范围丧失和灭绝风险的物种的能力。然而，随着时间的推移，物种范围的研究由于空间、分类和时间尺度的外部影响而变得复杂(Kemp等人。2015年)。利用古地形重建的新方法、古生物数据库的进步和新的进化假说，本研究摆脱了这些混淆的影响，并对化石记录中的山脉动力学的多个方面进行了评估。该项目有三个目标：1)量化物种的地理范围如何在多个时间尺度上波动；2)研究构造、地理和气候因素在构建范围动态中的贡献；3)评估这些范围大小动态的遗传力以及分类尺度对范围大小波动的影响。该项目将使用地理参照的古生物学数据库，包括Triton、PBDB、Neotoma，现在将描述物种范围随时间的变化，并确定一个物种进化历史上的范围大小的轨迹是否在分类群和时间尺度上是一致的。接下来，利用时间自回归模型和随机微分方程，范围大小的波动将与气候和构造变化的周期相关联。最后，应用来自已发表来源的系统发生数据，如Phylacine，将评估关联性和遗传性对射程大小轨迹的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The range of a species, or where the species lives in geographic space, can provide information about its role within an ecosystem and across landscapes. Species ranges are influenced by many factors, including changes in climate, shifts in ecosystems and communities, and anthropogenic influences. However, the dynamics of species ranges on geological timescales (for example, across millions of years) has not yet been fully understood. Furthermore, the study of species ranges through time is complicated by the influence of past tectonic shifts and climate change on species ranges. This project, conducted at the University of Oxford and advised by Dr. Erin Saupe, explores long-term changes in species range sizes across many different geographic extents, and types of species. It aims to quantify how species ranges fluctuate over multiple time scales, evaluate how tectonics and climate influence these fluctuations, and examine how the dynamics might be driven by relatedness and heritability between species. This project will provide new avenues of inquiry into the maintenance of biodiversity through time and will help to forge another link between the history of Earth and the history of life. During this project, the researchers will contribute to several programs aimed at increasing diversity in academia and introducing students to entire process of scientific research in geology and paleobiology. These programs include the Nuffield Research Placement Program, a month-long program where the students develop and answer their own research questions, and the UNIQ program, which sponsors high-school students from diverse and underserved communities to take short-courses in fields that interest them. Through these initiatives, the project aims to foster discussion on the vital importance of earth science in our changing world and to inspire a new cohort of dedicated earth scientists.As we enter the Anthropocene, unprecedented climatic and landscape changes are leading to global extinctions and the reorganization of many species’ ranges (Barnosky et al. 2011). Understanding how species ranges have changed through geological time can offer insight into these current and projected future changes. Furthermore, categorizing the dynamics of species range shifts from origination to extinction can increase the ability of conservation organizations and governments to identify and protect species that may be at risk of range loss and extinction. However, the study of species ranges through time is complicated by the extrinsic effects of spatial, taxonomic, and temporal scale (Kemp et al. 2015). Using new methods in paleo-topographic reconstruction paired with advances in paleontological databases and novel evolutionary hypotheses, this research extricates these confounding effects and evaluates multiple facets of range dynamics in the fossil record. The project has three aims: 1) to quantify how species’ geographic ranges fluctuate over multiple temporal scales, 2) to examine the contribution of tectonic, geographic, and climatic factors in structuring range dynamics, and 3) to evaluate the heritability of these range size dynamics and the influence of taxonomic scale on range size fluctuations. The project will use geo-referenced Paleobiology databases, including Triton, PBDB, Neotoma, and NOW to characterize species range size through time and to determine whether the trajectories of range size across a species’ evolutionary history is consistent across taxa and temporal scale. Next, fluctuations in range size will be correlated to periods of climate and tectonic changes, using temporal autoregressive models and stochastic differential equations. Finally, applying phylogenic data from published sources such as Phylacine, the influence of relatedness and heritability on range size trajectories will be evaluated.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.