NNA Research: Collaborative Research: Socio-Ecological Systems Transformation in River basins of the sub-Arctic under climate change (SESTRA)

航行新北极(NNA)是NSF的十大想法之一。NNA项目解决了快速变化的北极地区汇聚的科学挑战。这项北极研究需要为国家、更大区域和全球的经济、安全和韧性提供信息。NNA增强了从地方到国际的新的研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，加强正式和非正式教育的努力，并在适当的情况下整合共同创造知识。该奖项通过在以下NNA重点领域解决社会系统和自然系统之间的相互作用来实现这一目标的一部分：北极居民、数据和观测、教育、预测、全球影响和弹性基础设施。全球某些地区正在经历与社会和经济转型相一致的快速环境变化。例如，鉴于水系统在寒冷地区的重要作用，气候和社会经济变化对许多河流社区产生了重大影响。该项目重点关注分别位于亚北极阿拉斯加偏远地区和欧亚大陆北部(蒙古)的库斯科维姆河和色伦格河流域，分析气候、水和社会之间不断变化的相互作用，目的是评估它们对人类、生态系统和基础设施的影响。研究人员还将与受影响的当地和土著社区合作，制定当前和未来的适应方案。该项目的结果将在网上公布，便于公众查阅，这样受影响的社区就可以做出基于证据的决定。最终，该项目将让居民和政策制定者了解气候和水循环的变化如何影响生活在寒冷地区的人们。此外，研究结果将提出有效的方法来应对北极和次北极地区当前和未来的气候变化。项目成果将有助于应对当前和正在出现的气候变化挑战，并为未来由社区推动的国际合作奠定基础。北极和亚北极正在经历气候引起的环境变化，同时也正在经历重大的社会、经济和制度变化。该项目旨在分析不断变化的水文气候学和社会系统的不同组成部分之间复杂、动态的联系，以提高我们对社会生态系统(SES)相互作用的理解，评估它们对人类福祉的综合影响，并共同制定当前和未来的社区适应方案。这项研究由一个跨学科小组开展，将通过以下方式促进对北极相互关联的水文气候和人类过程的了解：a)确定和分析影响人类活动和生态系统服务的自然系统的水文气候学组成部分的变化；b)分析河流社会经济系统的变化；c)根据生态系统服务框架进行先进的社区参与建模，以了解当地和区域SES内的相互作用；d)探索SES内的复杂相互作用和反馈；e)为未来SES的变化及其对生态系统服务和社区适应选择的影响提供情景。这些方法将结合跨学科整合、本土知识参与、多尺度分析和建模，侧重于社区和利益攸关方参与的研究、知识共享，以及实施应对跨学科和跨学科挑战的实用方法。这项研究将为阿拉斯加和蒙古地区和社区提供一套可信的人类对气候、社会、经济和政治应激源的反应轨迹，并对更广泛的北极和亚北极地区产生影响。该项目将邀请土著艺术家参与，并为学生和早期职业科学家制定广泛的培训计划。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. This Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, enhances efforts in formal and informal education, and integrates the co-production of knowledge where appropriate. This award fulfills part of that aim by addressing interactions among social systems and natural systems in the following NNA focus areas: Arctic Residents, Data and Observation, Education, Forecasting, Global Impact, and Resilient Infrastructure.Certain parts of the globe are experiencing rapid environmental change coinciding with social and economic transformations. For example, given the vital role of water systems in cold regions, climate and socioeconomic changes have significantly impacted many riverine communities. Focusing on the Kuskokwim and Selenge river basins, located in remote parts of sub-Arctic Alaska and northern Eurasia (Mongolia), respectively, this project analyzes the changing interactions between climate, water, and society, with the goal of assessing their impact on people, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Researchers will also collaborate with impacted local and Indigenous communities to develop current and future adaptation options. Results from the project will be made available online for easy public access and so that impacted communities can make evidence-based decisions. Ultimately, this project will inform residents and policy makers on how changes in climate and water cycles impact people living in cold regions. Further, the results will recommend effective ways to deal with the current and future climate changes in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. Project results will help navigate the current and arising challenges of climate change and lay the foundation for future international community-driven collaboration. The Arctic and sub-Arctic are experiencing climate-induced environmental change alongside substantial social, economic, and institutional changes. This project seeks to analyze complex, dynamic linkages between different components of the changing hydroclimatological and social systems to improve our understanding of socio-ecological system (SES) interactions, assess their combined impact on human well-being, and co-develop current and future community adaptation options. This research, conducted by an interdisciplinary group, will advance understanding of linked hydroclimatic and human processes in the Arctic by: a) identifying and analyzing changes in hydroclimatological components of the natural system that affect human activities and ecosystem services, b) analyzing changes in riverine socioeconomic systems; c) conducting advanced community-engaged modeling based on the ecosystem services framework to understand interactions within the local and regional SES; d) exploring complex interactions and feedbacks within the SES; and e) providing scenarios for future SES changes and their impacts on ecosystem services and community adaptation options. The methodologies will combine transdisciplinary integration, engagement of Indigenous knowledge, multiscale analysis, and modeling, focusing on community- and stakeholder-engaged research, knowledge sharing, and implementing practical approaches to inter- and transdisciplinary challenges. This research will provide a set of plausible trajectories of human responses to climatic, social, economic, and political stressors developed for Alaskan and Mongolian regions and communities with implications for the broader Arctic and sub-Arctic. The project will involve Indigenous artists and develop an extensive training program for students and early career scientists.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.