Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Climate extremes and migration in Madagascar: Towards an integrated monitoring and modeling for mitigation and adaptation

该奖项为参与一个由55个国家发起的全球变化研究计划通过贝尔蒙特论坛竞争性选定的项目的美国研究人员提供支持。贝尔蒙特论坛是一个研究资助组织联盟，专注于支持以跨学科方法应对全球环境变化的挑战和机遇。它的目的是通过协调和调动国际资源，加速开展最迫切需要的国际研究，以消除对可持续性的关键障碍。每个伙伴国都在一个联合体内为其研究人员提供资金，以减轻跨越国际边界的资金需求。这种办法有助于有效地利用国家资源，支持对具有全球相关性的专题进行出色的研究，最好通过多国办法加以解决，同时认识到全球挑战需要全球解决办法。该奖项为美国研究人员在财团中进行合作提供支持，财团由至少三个参与国的合作伙伴组成。这些团队将建立跨学科项目，以确定和了解气候相关事件(包括缓慢和快速发生的事件)如何与人类迁徙和流动联系在一起。该链项目侧重于马达加斯加的一个案例研究，包括基于代理人的建模和多危害建模，以填补我们对气候驱动的移民问题的理解空白。研究人员将使用多种方法建立一个连贯的数据集，以解决文献中四个具体的、定义明确的空白。通过这样做，项目组还将开发具有成本效益的方法，用于在多种危险环境中对移徙进行量化，然后对其建模。重要的是，该项目旨在确定移徙的特征，以便为适应和政策反应提供信息。这些目标将通过四个相互关联的工作包来实现，意向性和理论将为团队优先考虑的联系提供信息。这些工作包包括：(1)基于遥感的移民估计；(2)物理模型；(3)衡量移民与多种危险环境之间的关系；以及(4)基于代理人的建模。研究团队包括来自法国、马达加斯加、瑞典、英国和美国的研究人员，并利用几项专业知识来实现他们的目标：环境物理学和地理学、气候学和环境科学、发展研究、应用发展经济学、政策评估以及行为和其他社会科学。该小组还包括六个利益攸关方组织，通过在整个项目中包括“知识中介”讲习班，该小组表明了他们对共同创造知识的承诺。这一集体技能对于团队开发以人为中心的综合方法并更好地了解影响迁移/流动的众多因素之间的复杂关系及其与气候危险的关系至关重要。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award provides support to U.S. researchers participating in a project competitively selected by a 55-country initiative on global change research through the Belmont Forum. The Belmont Forum is a consortium of research funding organizations focused on support for transdisciplinary approaches to global environmental change challenges and opportunities. It aims to accelerate delivery of the international research most urgently needed to remove critical barriers to sustainability by aligning and mobilizing international resources. Each partner country provides funding for their researchers within a consortium to alleviate the need for funds to cross international borders. This approach facilitates effective leveraging of national resources to support excellent research on topics of global relevance best tackled through a multinational approach, recognizing that global challenges need global solutions. This award provides support for the U.S. researchers to cooperate in consortia that consist of partners from at least three of the participating countries. The teams will establish transdisciplinary projects to identify and understand how climate-related events, both slow and rapid onset, are linked to human migration and mobility. The CHAIN project, focused on a case study in Madagascar, includes agent-based and multi-hazard modeling to fill gaps in our understanding around climate driven migration. The investigators will use multiple approaches to build a cohesive data set to address four specific, well-defined, gaps in the literature. By doing so, the project team will also develop cost-effective methods for quantifying and then modeling migration, in a multi-hazard environment. Importantly, the project aims to characterize migration to inform adaptation and policy responses. These goals will be accomplished via four interconnected work packages, with intentionality and theory informing the connections the team prioritizes. The work packages include: (1) remote sensing-based estimates of migration, (2) physical models, (3) measuring the migration-multi-hazard environment nexus; and (4) agent-based modeling. The research team includes researchers from France, Madagascar, Sweden, UK, and USA, and draws on several expertise to accomplish their goals: environmental physics and geography, climatology and environmental sciences, development studies, applied development economics, policy evaluation, and behavioral and other social sciences. The team also includes six stakeholder organizations and by including “knowledge-brokering” workshops throughout the project the team demonstrated their commitment to the co-production of knowledge. This collective skillset is critical for the team to develop integrated human-centric approaches and better understand complex relationships among the many factors influencing migration/mobility and its relationship to climate hazards.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.