Workshop: Collaborative Strategies for Predicting and Measuring Uncertainty in Rare Occurrences in Civil and Environmental Systems; Golden, Colorado; 6-8 November 2024

该奖项将支持一个研讨会，为统计科学与土木和环境工程之间的合作建立一个平台，以解释建筑环境风险和危害的数值模型和模拟。最近发生的极端天气事件，如2020年加州的火灾，2021年太平洋西北部的热浪和2022年中西部的洪水，强调了理解和减轻未来风险的关键必要性。工程师和统计学家之间的合作，专注于极值分析领域，为寻找应对这些风险的新方法提供了一个切实可行的机会。统计学家有能力为这些极端事件构建预测模型，从而为风险缓解决策提供有价值的见解。反过来，工程师可以使用这些预测模型来制定更具弹性的基础设施设计，并制定在这种情况下有效响应的策略。因此，本次研讨会的目标是促进知识和思想的双向交流，统计人员可以分享新兴的数据分析方法和量化不确定性的模型，土木和环境工程师可以讨论其领域和传统方法中的挑战性问题。通过这种方式，数据科学家的研究将受到工程中的实质性问题的激励。相反，土木和环境工程师可以根据统计科学的最新发展考虑解决问题的新方法。通过为不同领域之间的合作和知识共享创造机会，研讨会将旨在培养新的想法和解决方案，以应对当今土木和环境工程行业面临的挑战。该研讨会将汇集来自这些学科的领先专家，以开发新的合作，描述数学和统计挑战，并推进高维时空复合极端事件建模和推理的最新技术。NSF的支持将优先考虑代表性不足的群体的参与。研讨会将提供使用R软件的短期课程和实践教程，重点是对分布的尾部（极端）概率建模的方法。研究会谈，小组讨论和演讲将涉及统计学家和土木工程和环境科学专家。研究生和博士后的海报会议将包括3分钟的快速会谈和传统的海报。总体而言，该研讨会将促进极值分析方面的合作、知识共享和技能发展。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

This award will support a workshop to establish a platform for collaboration between statistical science and civil and environmental engineering in interpreting numerical models and simulations for risks and hazards to the built environment. The recent incidences of extreme weather events, such as the 2020 fires in California, the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, and the 2022 Midwest flooding, underscore the critical necessity to comprehend and mitigate future risks. The collaboration between engineers and statisticians, specializing in the field of extreme value analysis, presents a practical and focused opportunity to find novel approaches to these risks. Statisticians possess the capacity to construct predictive models for these extreme events, thereby providing valuable insights for decisions regarding risk mitigation. Engineers, in turn, can use these predictive models to formulate designs for more resilient infrastructure and devise strategies for effective response in such situations. Therefore, the goal of this workshop is to facilitate a two-way exchange of knowledge and ideas, where statisticians can share emerging methods for data analysis and models for quantifying uncertainty, and civil and environmental engineers can discuss challenging problems in their fields and their traditional approaches. In this manner, data scientists will be motivated in their research by substantial problems in engineering. Conversely, civil and environmental engineers can consider new ways of addressing issues based on recent developments in statistical science. By creating opportunities for collaboration and knowledge sharing between different fields, the workshop will aim to foster new ideas and solutions that can address the challenges facing the civil and environmental engineering industry today. The workshop will bring together leading experts from these disciplines to develop new collaborations, delineate mathematical and statistical challenges, and advance the state-of-the-art in the modeling and inference for high-dimensional spatio-temporal, compound extreme events. NSF support will prioritize participation by underrepresented groups. The workshop will offer short courses and hands-on tutorials using R software, focusing on methods for modeling the tail (extreme) probabilities of a distribution. Research talks, panel discussions, and presentations will involve statisticians and experts in civil engineering and environmental science. A poster session for graduate students and post-docs will include 3-minute speed talks and traditional posters. Overall, the workshop will foster collaboration, knowledge sharing, and skill development in extreme value analysis.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.