DISES: Decision Making for Land Use Planning under Future Climate Scenarios through Engaged Research via Co-Design

由于人类活动，生物多样性的明显丧失使许多物种处于灭绝的边缘。然而，人类也有能力做出决定，防止生物多样性丧失，改善地球上的生态系统功能。这项研究解决了科学家和决策者如何共同努力，以一种可以转化为政策行动的方式，利用现有的最佳数据、技术和预测工具，制定可持续的土地利用解决方案的问题。该项目的研究人员将直接与哥伦比亚的科学家和政策制定者合作，开发可以预测未来土地利用变化的模型，并利用这些模型做出可持续的土地利用决策。哥伦比亚是世界上生物多样性第二多的国家。广泛的参与者将通过讲习班参与研究，这些讲习班将开发模型，参与者的反馈将用于改进产出的可用性和有用性。将评估该方法的有效性，以确定如何在未来改进这种参与式研究方法。此外，该项目将通过为学生和博士后提供培训和指导，扩大对保护科学和STEM的参与。通过一种参与式的研究方法，该项目将科学家和决策者聚集在一起，使用协同设计来推进更可行的知识生产系统，使决策者参与形成研究，而不仅仅是接受结果。通过将多样化、多尺度的数据整合到动态预测模型中，为可操作和可持续的土地利用计划提供信息，以防止生物多样性和生态系统服务的丧失，同时确保未来的粮食和能源安全，从而推进土地利用和生物多样性预测的基础科学理论和模型。这些预测将根据利益相关者的投入和反馈，对不同的保护、农业和能源土地利用领域进行优先排序，从而支持可持续土地利用决策，以支持联合国可持续发展目标和《生物多样性公约》的“30x30”目标等全球目标。将评估模型对用户确定的场景和数据输入的敏感性，以告知模型如何响应目标变量的不同杠杆点，从而导致不同的土地使用优先级和不同的模型参数化。还将评估知识创造和使用过程的功效和有效性，以更好地了解协同设计如何导致转化研究成果和干预措施，从而最终提高机构的决策能力。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The apparent loss of biodiversity as a function of human activities has many species on the brink of extinction. However, humans slso have the power to make the decisions to prevent biodiversity losses and improve ecosystem functioning on Earth. This research addresses the question of how scientists and decision makers can work together to develop sustainable land-use solutions in a way that leverages the best available data, technology, and predictive tools in a manner that can be translated into policy action. The researchers on this project will work directly with scientists and policy makers in Colombia—the second most biodiverse country in the world—to develop models that can predict future land use changes and use those models to make sustainable land-use decisions. A broad set of participants will engage in the research through workshops where the models will be developed, and participant feedback will be used to improve the usability and usefulness of the outputs. The effectiveness of the approach will be evaluated to determine how such an engaged research approach can be improved in the future. Additionally, this project will broaden participation in conservation science and STEM by providing training and mentoring to students and postdocs.Bringing together scientists and decision makers through an engaged research approach, this project uses co-design to advance toward more viable systems of knowledge production that involve decision makers in shaping the research, not just receiving the outcomes. Basic scientific theories and models of land use and biodiversity forecasting will be advanced by integrating diverse, multi-scale data into dynamic prediction models to inform actionable and sustainable land use plans to prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services while also ensuring food and energy security into the future. These projections will be used to prioritize different areas for conservation, agriculture, and energy land uses according to stakeholder inputs and feedback so that they can support sustainable land-use decisions in support of global targets such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity’s 30x30 target. The sensitivity of the models to user-determined scenarios and data inputs will be assessed to inform how the model responds to different points of leverage on the target variables leading to different land use prioritizations and different model parameterizations. The process of knowledge creation and use will also be assessed for its efficacy and effectiveness to better understand how co-design can lead to translational research outcomes and interventions that will ultimately improve the decision-making capacity of agencies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.