A stochastic space-time model of rainfall fields in large heterogeneous regions

澳大利亚降雨量在时间和空间上的极端变异性影响到水资源的数量和质量、农业系统的生产力以及水生和陆地生态系统。鉴于干旱和洪水等极端事件的影响，以及对与水有关的基础设施的大规模投资，评估这种风险是一个具有国家经济、社会和环境意义的问题。随机时空降雨模型使降雨量和气候变异性能够被量化，在任意长时间内进行模拟，并评估风险。这项研究将为诸如默里达令河这样的大流域提供软件和开发降雨模拟框架。

The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of its water resources, the productivity of its agricultural systems, and its aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as droughts and floods and given the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of such risks is an issue of national economic, social and environmental significance. Stochastic space-time rainfall models enable rainfall and climatic variability to be quantified, simulated over arbitrarily long periods, and risks assessed. This research will provide software and the development of rainfall modelling frameworks for large river basins such as the Murray-Darling.