Devaluation of Experience? Expectation Formation in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in the Period of Economic Structural Change since the 1970s

本课题探讨了20世纪70年代以来的经济结构变化时期的中小企业（SMEs）的期望形成的历史经验的价值：结构变化沿着决策需求的增长，是否导致了这些主要由所有者或家族经营的企业的期望形成的基于经验的知识的贬值？我们有一个双重的工作假设：首先，我们假设，在20世纪60年代中期，中小企业的所有者和高管们一直存在的和直观的经验知识受到了战后前二十年创业成功的显著影响。第二，我们同时假设，在管理专业化的过程中，这种经验知识被某些功能等同物所取代，这些功能等同于Niklas Luhmann所说的更理性的、非个人的、组织期望的形成。如果我们遵循这一假设，那么可以假定，在公司治理的所有相关领域，人们有意识地放弃了根据个人经验形成的相当直观-适应性的预期，而更多地使用了有条理的先进分析和预测技术以及沿着的咨询程序。然而，这一假设需要质疑的同时：也许甚至相反的事态发展发生了，因为专业化的过程中，面对反复的企业危机迅速达到自己的极限？中小企业的所有人和总经理在应付结构变化方面面临越来越多的困难，他们是否更多地依赖经验知识，但这种知识可以追溯到更早以前或延伸到其他领域？该项目将在三个研究领域解决这些问题：第一，所有者关系的安排以及管理和控制结构;第二，由此产生的战略和组织结构的选择;第三，投资和融资的规划和实施。因此，该项目被置于PP 1859的企业，创新和技术变革的核心研究领域。我们计划采用一种跨学科的方法，将真正的有限理性（Gerd Gigerenzer/Reinhard Selten）、动物精神（乔治阿克洛夫/罗伯特希勒）和虚构的期望（Jens Beckert）的思想结合起来。在第一步中，我们将创建一个动态的启发式模型，经验为基础的期望形成的中小企业自20世纪70年代以来。第二步，将利用这一模式对一个案例研究（菲律宾/萨尔波）进行实证分析。这将允许进行严格的检查，并在必要时随后调整模型本身。如果该模式证明是有用和多产的，我们正在考虑在一个后续项目中使用该模式，对不同国家的更多中小型企业进行系统比较分析。

The project inquires about the value of historical experience for the expectation formation in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the period of economic structural change since the 1970s: Has the structural change along with its growing demands for decision-making led to a devaluation of experience-based knowledge for the expectation formation of these mostly owner- or family-operated businesses? We have a twofold working hypothesis: First, we assume that the ever-present and intuitively employed empirical knowledge of the owners and executives of SMEs in the mid-1960s was significantly impacted by the entrepreneurial successes of the first two post-war decades. Second, we simultaneously assume that during a process of professionalization of management this empirical knowledge was replaced by certain functional equivalents of a more rational oriented, non-personal, organizational expectation formation according to Niklas Luhmann. If one follows this hypothesis, it can be assumed that a conscious waiver of the rather intuitive-adaptive expectation formation drawing upon individual experiences took place in favor of an increased use of methodical advanced techniques of analysis and prognosis along with consulting procedures in all relevant areas of corporate governance. However, this assumption needs to be questioned at the same time: Perhaps even contrary developments took place because the professionalization process, in the face of repeated corporate crises reached quickly its own limits? Did the owners and managing directors of SMEs, being confronted with increasing difficulties in coping with the structural changes, rely perhaps even more on empirical knowledge, but dating farther back or extending into other areas? The project will tackle these questions in three fields of examination: First, the arrangement of owner relationships and the structures of management and control; second, the choice of strategies and organizational structures derived from them; third, the planning and implementation of investments and financing them. Therefore, the project is placed within the core research area of enterprises, innovation and technological changes of the PP 1859. We plan to work with an interdisciplinary methodical approach that combines the ideas of truly bounded rationality (Gerd Gigerenzer/Reinhard Selten), animal spirits (George Akerlof/Robert Shiller), and fictional expectations (Jens Beckert). In a first step we will create a dynamic heuristic model for experience-based expectation formation in SMEs since the 1970s. In a second step, this model will be used for the empirical analysis of a case study (Philippine/Saarpor). That will allow a critical examination, and, if necessary, subsequent adjustment of the model itself. If the model proves to be useful and prolific, we are considering using it in a follow-up project for the systematic-comparative analysis of a bigger sample of SMEs from different countries.