Current and future socio-hydrological responses on climate variability and climate change in the Ayeyarwady River Basin, Myanmar

艾洛瓦迪河流域覆盖了缅甸S陆地的61%，提供了大量的生态系统服务。这条河是国家的生命线，因为它服务于交通、供水、灌溉、渔业和其他方面。区域气候变化具有严重的水文影响，并可能在气候敏感的河流流域造成极端洪水和干旱。三角洲和中部干旱地区尤其如此，这两个地区是该国人口最密集的地区。由于预期的气候变化，自然影响参数可能会发生重大变化，这可能会对区域水资源产生重大影响，进而也可能改变人类干预的程度。所有这些变化正在并将以一种迄今不为人知的方式影响社会水文系统、河岸S人的生计、他们的福祉和流域生态系统。该国还没有关于气候多变性和预期气候变化的社会水文反应的研究。我们想要解决的问题是，造成洪水和干旱的气候变化如何与艾耶罗瓦季河流域三角洲和干旱地区的流域水文、人类福祉和社会相互作用。根据这一建议，我们申请9个月的试点阶段，以便进行彻底的数据收集、可靠的文献审查和数据处理。此外，在实地考察期间确定个案研究地点是第一个工作步骤的中心目标。另一个根本目标是在缅甸建立(学术)合作。根据我们的调查结果和这项试点研究的数据结果，我们将申请36个月的后续建议，旨在增加对艾耶罗瓦迪盆地三角洲和干旱区气候变化和社会水文反应的了解，并缩小整个河流流域社会水文和气候研究的差距。

The Ayeyarwady River basin covers 61 % of Myanmar´s landmass and provides a large number of ecosystem services. The river is the lifeline of the nation because it serves for transportation, water supply, irrigation, fishing and others. Regional climate variabilities have severe hydrological effects and can cause extreme floods and droughts in the climate sensitive river basin. This is especially the case for the delta and the central dry zone, which are the most densely populated areas of the country. Due to the expected climate change, the natural influencing parameters will possibly change significantly, which can have major impacts on regional water resources, which in turn, can modify also the degree of human interventions. All these changes are affecting and will affect the socio-hydrological system, the riparian´s livelihoods, their wellbeing and the river basin ecosystems in a so far unknown way. Research on socio-hydrologic responses to climate variability and expected climate change does not exist for the country. We want to address the question, how climate variabilities, which cause floods and droughts, interplay with the river basin hydrology and human wellbeing and society in the delta and the dry zone of the Ayeyarwady River basin. With this proposal we apply for a 9 months pilot phase in order to conduct a thorough data collection, sound literature review and data processing. Furthermore, the identification of case study sites during a field trip is a central objective for the first working step. Another fundamental goal is the establishment of (academic) cooperation in Myanmar. Based on our findings and data outcome from this pilot study we will then apply for a 36 months follow-up proposal aiming at increasing the knowledge of climate variability and socio-hydrologic responses in the delta and the dry zone of the Ayeyarwady basin and close the gap of socio-hydrologic and climatic research in the entire river basin.