Are humans responsible for recent changes in the behaviour of tropical cyclones? Decoupling natural variability from human influence using isotopes

强烈热带气旋登陆频率的增加将对澳大利亚的经济以及公民和游客的安全产生重大影响。毫无疑问，全球气候变化将导致这种增长。了解这种情况何时可能发生，以及这种变化超出自然可能发生的变化的程度，将有助于减少经济损失并挽救人们的生命。利用热带气旋的同位素记录和全球气候模型，我们将区分自然和人为引起的变化，并确定这种危险对澳大利亚及其邻国未来可能产生的影响。

An increase in the frequency of intense landfalling tropical cyclones will have a major impact upon Australia's economy and the safety of its citizens and visitors. There is little doubt that global climate change will cause this increase. Understanding when this might occur and the extent of this change over and above that which could also occur naturally will help reduce economic loss and save peoples' lives. Using isotope records of tropical cyclones and global climate models we will differentiate natural from human induced changes and ascertain the likely future impact of this hazard on Australia and its near neighbours.