Spatial interpolation and conditional simulation of short time step rainfall for hydrological modelling

提出的研究目标是研究降水的空间插值和时空条件模拟，用于中尺度水文模拟，重点是洪水等高动态过程。在研究的第一部分，多元地统计方法将被应用和进一步发展，用于利用附加信息，特别是天气雷达数据插值短时间步长降水。插值方法给出了无偏估计，但存在平滑降水分布的问题，特别是在没有雷达数据的情况下。这将导致极端水文重现的高度不确定性。研究项目的第二部分使用降水的条件时空模拟来解决这个问题，该模拟允许保留降雨变化结构。当雷达数据可用时，条件模拟将用于量化Z-R关系的不确定性。对这些方法的验证将使用不同复杂程度的降水和水文模型的交叉验证进行。作为研究区域，德国北部的“大哈尔茨地区”将被使用。

Objective of the proposed research is the investigation of spatial interpolation and spatiotemporal conditional simulation of precipitation for mesoscale hydrological modelling focussing on highly dynamic processes like floods. In the first part of the study multivariate geostatistical methods will be applied and further developed for interpolation of short time step precipitation using additional information, especially weather radar data. The interpolation methods give an unbiased estimation but have the problem of smoothing the precipitation distribution, especially when radar data are absent. This will lead to high uncertainties for the reproduction of hydrological extremes. The second part of the research project addresses this problem using conditional spatiotemporal simulation of precipitation which allows preserving the rainfall variance structure. When radar data are available conditional simulations will be used for the quantification of the uncertainty of the Z-R relationship. Validation of the methods will be carried out using cross validation of precipitation and hydrological modelling at different levels of complexity. As study area the ¿Greater Harz Region¿ in the northern part of Germany will be used.