Probability of Seaweed Invasions into Antarctica (SINVA): Invasiveness vs. Invasibility

全球范围内的生物入侵正在增加，这是由于世界范围内日益增长的连通性和气候条件的变化。并不是每一个被引入新环境的物种都会成为入侵者，但如果从自然控制因素中释放出来，就会这样做。一个物种的入侵性是由它的生物学特性（如生理耐受性、繁殖策略）决定的。反过来，潜在接收区域的不可侵入性取决于物理化学（即合适的气候和基质条件）和生物（即竞争对手和食草动物的存在）环境。入侵海藻有可能严重破坏浅水底栖生态系统的结构和功能，对当地生物多样性造成不利影响。目前还没有关于将入侵性海藻物种引入南极洲的报道，但在不久的将来可能会发生，因为气候变化（导致温度升高和南极环极流减弱）以及旅游业和科学目的的航运活动稳步增加。最近被引入巴塔哥尼亚/麦哲伦/火地岛地区的三种海藻被认为是进一步传播到南极洲的候选者。基于实验生态生理学（确定入侵性）和栖息地测绘（表征入侵性）的结合方法，我们将为三个候选物种生成预测物种分布模型。总体而言，该项目将确定最近引入巴塔哥尼亚和麦哲伦的海藻物种进一步扩大其范围到南设得兰群岛和南极洲西部半岛的可能性。作为最后的结果，一份未来在南极半岛西部海藻场所的预测图将被提出。通过这种方式，该项目为“1158南极研究优先计划”的两个主要跨学科研究课题：通往低纬度的门户和对环境变化的响应作出了实质性贡献。

Biological invasions are globally increasing, facilitated by a growing worldwide connectivity and changing climate conditions. Not every species introduced to a new environment will act as an invader, but will do so if released from its natural controlling factors. The invasiveness of a species is set by its biological traits (i.e. physiological tolerance, reproductive strategies). In turn, the invasibility of a potential recipient region is determined by the physico-chemical (i.e. suitable climate and substrate conditions) and biological (i.e. presence of competitors and grazers) settings. Invasive seaweeds have the potential to significantly impair structure and function of shallow water benthic ecosystems with detrimental effects on local biodiversity. The introduction of invasive seaweed species into Antarctica has not been reported yet, but might happen in the near future supported by climate change (entailing temperature increase and a weakening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) and steadily increasing shipping activities for tourism, but also scientific purposes. Three seaweed species, which have been recently introduced to the Patagonia/Magallanes/Tierra del Fuego region are considered candidates for further spread into Antarctica. Based on a combined approach of experimental ecophysiology (to determine invasiveness) and habitat mapping (to characterize invasibility) we will generate predictive species distribution models for the three candidate species. Overall, this project will determine the likelihood of seaweed species recently introduced to Patagonia and Magallanes to further expand their range to the South Shetlands and the Western Antarctica Peninsula. As the final outcome a predictive map of future seaweed establishments at the Western Antarctic Peninsula will be presented. In this way, the project substantially contributes to two of the overarching cross-disciplinary research topics of the Priority Program 1158 on Antarctic Research: Gateway to lower latitudes and Response to environmental change.