Demographic fluctuations in dynamic landscapes: the integration of molecular and paleoecological evidence in a primate model opens a window into the past

冰期和间冰期之间明显的气候波动对全球植被和动物种群动态产生了影响。这些浅层时间（在地质和进化时间尺度上）动态对形成当前生物多样性和生物地理格局的重要性日益受到强调，尽管很少以综合方式进行分析。了解生物多样性驱动因素的必要步骤之一是协同各研究领域的努力，例如，重建历史森林覆盖变化的程度和频率与森林依赖生物的人口变化之间的相互作用。本研究将继续将植被和气候动态的新记录与推断的种群动态结合起来，重建马达加斯加特有灵长类属森林栖息物种的时空人口动态。基于我们在第一个资助期的成功工作，该项目将把基于三种鼠狐猴物种的分子数据集的人口统计推断与高分辨率植被和气候动态结合起来，这些数据现在可以从马达加斯加北部追溯到末次盛冰期（LGM）。在推断人口波动时，这两个数据集的整合将能够比较现有人口建模工具的敏感性和性能。为了实现这些目标，将对来自马达加斯加西北部和北部的鼠狐猴分子数据集进行分析，并与现有的古生态数据集进行比较。人口统计学重建将基于现有的RADSeq数据集和三个鼠狐猴物种的几个全基因组。人口统计学建模工具包括阶梯图、PSMC分析和基于模型的合并方法。本研究将在当前栖息地破碎化和未来气候变化的背景下，为进一步了解狐猴种群的进化历史和未来发展前景作出重要贡献。

Marked climatic oscillations between glacial and interglacial periods had worldwide consequences for vegetation as well as animal population dynamics. The importance of these shallow-time (on geological and evolutionary timescales) dynamics for shaping current biodiversity and biogeography patterns is increasingly stressed, although rarely analyzed in an integrated manner. One of the necessary steps in order to understand the drivers of biodiversity is to synergize the efforts from various research fields by, for example, reconstructing the interplay between the degree and frequency of historic forest cover changes and demographic changes of forest-dependent organisms. This study will continue to integrate new records of vegetation and climate dynamics with inferred population dynamics to reconstruct the demographic dynamics of forest dwelling species over space and time in a primate genus endemic to Madagascar. Based on our successful work from the first funding period, this project will integrate demographic inferences based on molecular datasets of three mouse lemur species with high-resolution vegetation and climate dynamics that became now available from northern Madagascar and reach back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The integration of both datasets will allow to compare the sensitivity and performance of available demographic modelling tools when inferring demographic fluctuations. To reach these goals, available molecular datasets generated for mouse lemurs from northwestern and northern Madagascar will be analyzed and compared with available paleoecological datasets. Demographic reconstructions will be based on available RADSeq datasets and several full genomes generated for three mouse lemur species. Demographic modelling tools include Stairway Plots, PSMC analyses, and model-based coalescent approaches. This study will contribute substantially to a deeper understanding of the evolutionary history and future prospects of lemur populations in view of ongoing habitat fragmentation and future climate change.