Application of Probabilistic Forecasting to Load Management (T04#)

德国电力市场上可再生能源产量的增加给市场参与者带来了新的挑战。在这个转移项目中，我们的目标是生成工业用户的电力负荷的概率预测，并评估其对需求侧管理的好处。这可以帮助企业科普新的市场变化，提高系统的稳定性。与ÖKOTEC EnergiemanagementGmbH一起，我们希望采用CRC 649“经济风险”中开发的方法来获得真实的消费者数据。这需要灵活的建模技术。潜在的随时间变化的行为将使用本地化方法来解决。将对结果进行评估和可视化，并测试其对实践的适用性。

The increasing amount of renewable energy production in the German electricity marketposes new challenges to market participants. In this transfer project we aim at generatingprobabilistic forecasts of electricity load of industrial consumers and assess their benefit fordemand-side-management. This can help companies to cope with the new marketenvironment and to improve system stability. Together with ÖKOTEC EnergiemanagementGmbH we want to adopt the methods developed within the CRC 649 “Economic Risk” to realconsumer data. This requires flexible modeling techniques. Potential time-varying behaviorwill be address using localizing methods. Results will be evaluated and visualized and theirapplicability to practice will be tested.