Refugees: Labor Market Integration and Impact on Natives

2015年，联邦移民和难民办公室（BAMF）记录了89万难民抵达德国。2016年又来了29万人。最新数据显示，2015年有44.2万份新的庇护申请，2016年又有72.2万份（BAMF, 2016a）。如此大规模的难民涌入不仅是德国战后历史上前所未有的，而且也是欧盟成员国和经合组织高收入国家自二战以来报告的最大规模的人口流入。本项目旨在分两部分探讨难民流入的影响。首先，我们将通过调查种族飞地在难民人力资本获取中的作用来探讨难民的表现。其次，我们将探讨这种难民流入对当地人劳动力市场结果的影响。除了收集有关难民流入的主要数据外，我们还将依靠两个次要数据来源：(i) IAB-BAMF-SOEP难民样本，这是最近流入德国的难民的唯一代表性和全面数据集；（ii）联邦就业局（Bundesagentur fr Arbeit）关于难民主要原籍国国民的月度行政数据，以及根据联邦就业局登记的失业、求职和领取福利难民档案创建的新数据集。难民流入和难民集中对难民人力资本获取和当地人劳动力市场结果的影响的因果识别将来自德国国家和州政府实施的看似外生的难民安置规则。

In 2015, the Federal Office for Migrants and Refugees (BAMF) recorded the arrival of 890,000 refugees to Germany. Another 290,000 came in 2016. The most recent figures show that 442,000 new asylum applications were filed in 2015, and a further 722,000 in 2016 (BAMF, 2016a). This large influx of refugees is not only unprecedented in the post-war history of Germany, it also constitutes the largest human influx reported since WWII among both EU Member States and high-income countries of the OECD. This project aims to explore the impact of this refugee inflow in two parts. First, we will explore how refugees fare by investigating the role of ethnic enclaves in human capital acquisition of refugees. Second, we will explore the impact of this refugee inflow on labor market outcomes of natives. In addition to collecting primary data on refugee inflows, we will rely on two secondary data sources: (i) the IAB-BAMF-SOEP refugee sample which is the sole representative and comprehensive data set of the recent refugee inflow to Germany and (ii) monthly administrative data from the Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) on nationals from the main countries of origin of refugees and a novel dataset created from the files on unemployed, job-seeking and benefit-recipient refugees registered by the Federal Employment Agency. Causal identification of impact of refugee inflows and refugee concentration on human capital acquisition of refugees and labor market outcomes of natives will come from plausibly exogenous refugee placement rules applied by national and state governments in Germany.