Towards a Micro-Founded Theory of Monetary Policy

在新凯恩斯主义货币理论的背景下，工厂一级投资的流动性通常没有考虑在内（见，例如，Christiano et al. 2005 and Woodford 2005）。我们在Reiter et al.（2013）中的主要结果表明，如果这一理论被一个标准的投资模型所扩展，货币政策冲击会对产出和通货膨胀产生巨大但非常短暂的影响，这与经验证据和文献中的共识观点背道而驰。因此，标准货币理论的微观基础值得怀疑。事实上，该理论的实用性完全取决于两个假设之一。资本积累要么是从（见，例如，Galí 2015等）或以与工厂级投资的微观证据不一致的方式考虑（参见，例如，Woodford 2003，2005或Christiano等人2005，以及许多其他人）。因此，拟议的项目旨在发展一种与微观投资数据相一致的货币传导机制理论。这是迈向微观基础货币政策理论的突破性一步。鉴于当前货币理论在中央银行和其他政策机构中的广泛应用，拟议的研究显然解决了重要的挑战。具体而言，研究项目将分析特殊生产力冲击在这一背景下的作用。我们还将考虑源自劳动力市场和金融市场的其他摩擦。这些摩擦有可能意味着，在有巨额投资的情况下，要有一个现实的货币传导机制。最终的目标是使用由此产生的框架来分析货币政策替代安排的可取性。关键的方法挑战是计算具有异质企业的大型一般均衡模型，我们通过Reiter（2009，2010 a，B和2017）开发的方法解决了这个问题。

The lumpy nature of plant-level investment is generally not taken into account in the context of New Keynesian monetary theory (see, e.g., Christiano et al. 2005 and Woodford 2005). Our main result in Reiter et al. (2013) shows that if this theory is augmented by a standard model of lumpy investment, monetary policy shocks lead to large but very short-lived impacts on output and inflation, in a way that goes against empirical evidence and the consensus view in the literature. The microfoundations of standard monetary theory are therefore questionable. In fact, the perceived usefulness of that theory rests entirely on one of two assumptions. Capital accumulation is either abstracted from (see, e.g., Galí 2015, among many others) or taken into account in a way that is inconsistent with the microevidence on plant-level investment (see, e.g., Woodford 2003, 2005 or Christiano et al. 2005, among many others). The proposed project therefore aims at developing a theory of the monetary transmission mechanism that is consistent with the micro-level investment data. This is a ground-breaking step towards a micro-founded theory of monetary policy. Given the large extent to which current monetary theory is used at central banks and other policy institutions the proposed research clearly addresses important challenges. Specifically, the research projects will analyze the role of idiosyncratic productivity shocks in that context. We will also consider additional frictions originating in labor markets as well as in financial markets. Those frictions have the potential to imply a realistic monetary transmission mechanism in the presence of lumpy investment. The ultimate goal will be to use the resulting framework for an analysis of the desirability of alternative arrangements for the conduct of monetary policy. The key methodological challenge is the computation of large general equilibrium models with heterogeneous firms, which we solve by the methods developed in Reiter (2009, 2010a,b and 2017).