Protected area effectiveness in the Caucasus during socioeconomic and political shocks

从物种到生态系统，大规模的生物多样性丧失是人类世的一个特征。阻止这一趋势的一个普遍保护工具是建立保护区，其目的是保护生态系统的完整性和功能、物种多样性和生态系统服务。尽管世界各地保护区网络的增加取得了显著进展，但由于人类的压力，生物多样性和栖息地的丧失仍在继续。因此，保护区在实现保护目标方面的有效性是有争议的，了解保护区在什么条件下发挥预期的作用是一个关键的研究课题。有一系列混杂变量可能影响保护区的绩效。然而，社会经济和政治条件是动态和快速变化的，这可能在很大程度上决定了保护区的保护结果。因此，迫切需要解决与保护区有效性相关的首要问题，特别是在社会经济和政治冲击的背景下。南高加索的保护区提供了一个独特的自然实验环境来回答这些问题，因为它们经历了不同的冲击和管理方法，同时共享类似的生态系统和物种组成。在本研究中，我们将采用跨学科的方法，将自上而下的遥感方法与自下而上的野生动物监测和社会调查技术相结合，以测量多维度的人类压力，并将评估保护区在地震之前、期间和之后的有效性。首先，我们将量化土地转换和牲畜入侵的趋势和空间格局。利用卫星图像和遥感结合家畜遥测，我们将评估土地利用变化的时空格局。其次，对有蹄动物偷猎在保护区的空间分布进行量化。为此，与当地社区的焦点小组会议和护林员关于偷猎事件的日志数据将有助于估计偷猎热点。第三，我们将评估在社会经济和政治冲击的背景下，保护区在缓解人类压力方面的作用。最后，我们将评估保护区对有蹄类物种栖息地适宜性的影响大小，考虑人类压力及其在冲击之前、之后和期间的协同作用。通过评估南高加索保护区的有效性，本研究将解开全球变化过程中社会经济和政治冲击等混杂因素的复杂影响，这对于制定所研究系统之外的保护行动至关重要。我们的项目成果还将为南高加索独特但濒危的生物多样性的保护和土地利用规划提供指导。

Massive biodiversity loss, from species to ecosystems, is a characteristic of the Anthropocene. A universal conservation tool to halt this trend is the establishment of protected areas, which aim at safeguarding ecosystem integrity and functioning, species diversity and ecosystem services. Despite marked advances in increase of protected area networks around the world, biodiversity and habitat losses due to human pressures continue to date. Therefore, the effectiveness of protected areas in delivering conservation goals is debatable, and understanding under which conditions protected areas function as envisioned is a key research topic. There is a range of confounding variables potentially affecting the performance of protected areas. However, socioeconomic and political conditions are dynamically and rapidly changing, and this might strongly determine the conservation outcomes of protected areas. Therefore, there is an urgent need to address overarching questions related to the effectiveness of protected areas, especially in the context of socioeconomic and political shocks. The protected areas in the southern Caucasus offer a unique natural experiment setting to answer these questions, as they have experienced different shocks and management approaches while sharing comparable ecosystems and species compositions. In this proposed research, we will apply an interdisciplinary approach, bridging top-down remote sensing methods to bottom-up wildlife monitoring and social survey techniques to measure multi-dimensional human pressures, and will assess the effectiveness of protected areas before, during and after the shocks. First, we will quantify the trends and spatial patterns of land conversion and livestock encroachment over time. Using satellite imagery and remote sensing in combination with telemetry of livestock, we will assess the spatiotemporal patterns of land-use change. Second, the spatial distribution of ungulate poaching in the protected areas over time will be quantified. For this purpose, focus group meetings with local communities and rangers’ logbook data on poaching incidents will help in estimation of poaching hotspots. Third, we will assess the role of protected areas in the alleviation of human pressures in the context of socioeconomic and political shocks. Finally, we will assess the effect size of protected areas on the habitat suitability of ungulate species considering human pressures and their synergies before, after and during the shocks.By assessing the effectiveness of protected areas in the southern Caucasus, this study will disentangle the otherwise complex effects of confounding factors such as socioeconomic and political shocks in global change processes, which is essential in devising conservation actions beyond the studied system. Our project results will also provide guidance for conservation and land use planning for the unique but endangered biodiversity of the southern Caucasus.