The Persistence of Low Growth and Low Inflation in a New Keynesian Model with Human Capital-based Endogenous Growth

最近的学术和政策讨论集中在两个相关问题上：(i)发达国家是否陷入了长期的低增长-低通胀；（ii）尽管失业率下降，但低通胀的持续存在是否反映了菲利普斯曲线的趋平，这对总需求政策的有效性有影响。然而，仍然缺乏一个连贯的理论框架来理解这些现象。拟议的项目旨在通过开发基于三个支柱的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型来填补这一空白：基于人力资本积累的内生增长、劳动力市场摩擦和名义价格惯性。拟议的项目依赖于我们对外源性增长的商业周期效应的初步研究，该研究已经提供了增长与通货膨胀之间内生相互作用的部分图景。拟议的项目旨在通过考虑人力资本渠道及其与劳动力市场摩擦、价格惯性和商业周期冲击的相互作用来内生长期增长。

Recent academic and policy discussions have focused on two related issues: (i) whether advanced countries are trapped in a prolonged period of low growth-low inflation and (ii) whether the persistence of low inflation despite declining unemployment reflects a flattening of the Phillips curve, with implications for the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies. However, there is still a lack of a coherent theoretical framework for understanding these phenomena. The proposed project aims to fill this gap by developing a New-Keynesian DSGE model that is based on three pillars: endogenous growth based on human capital accumulation, labor market frictions and nominal price inertia. The proposed project relies on our preliminary work on business cycle effects of exogenous growth, which already provides a partial picture of the endogenous interaction between growth and inflation. The proposed project intends to endogenize long-run growth by considering the human capital channel and its interaction with labor market frictions, price inertia, and business cycle shocks.