Mechanisms of Panel Conditioning in Longitudinal Studies: Reflection, Satisficing, and Social Desirability

纵向调查是实证社会科学的主要工具，通过它可以观察稳定和变化的社会模式，检验理论，并得出基于证据的政策建议。面板条件反射效应（PCE），即实际行为、态度或知识的变化，或由于先前的调查参与而导致的反应行为的变化，危及纵向研究的这些最重要的目标：对稳定性和变化的有效测量。PCE领域的研究差距是因为缺乏允许检验因果推论的研究。具体来说，为了了解PCE的机制，并提出减少PCE引起的测量误差的方法，有必要使用实验研究设计。因此，我们提出了一个创新的研究设计，包括一个2 × 6因子实验和一个2因子实验。第一个因素操纵回答相同问题的频率（从1次到6次），第二个因素改变测量间隔（波之间的2个月和4个月）。本研究设计将在两个现有的小组研究中实施：第一个是GESIS小组，一个离线招募基于概率的混合模式（在线和邮件）小组，第二个是在线访问小组。我们选择在线模式作为主要的调查模式，因为这种模式对小组研究越来越重要。因此，本项目的总体目标是更好地了解PCE的大小（即效应大小）和引起PCE的机制，以推进理论和实证知识，为研究者进行纵向研究提供建议和最佳实践建议的基础。该项目有三个目标。第一个目标是区分导致PCE的不同机制：由于反思、调查满意度和社会期望偏见而导致的报告态度、行为和知识的变化。第二个目标是确定PCE在社会调查中所代表的问题类型（态度、行为和知识）、不同问题被问的次数（条件反射频率）和不同问题之间的时间间隔（条件反射间隔）方面的效应大小和重要性。第三个目标是对纠正方法提出建议，作为最佳实践建议。这些建议将有助于减少不同问题类型的测量不准确性。该项目还将对基于证据的实践产生决定性影响，因为它将有助于具有重大公共政策影响的大规模纵向研究，以解释潜在的测量误差。

Longitudinal surveys are the major instrument of empirical social sciences through which both stable and changing societal patterns are observed, theories are tested, and evidence-based policy recommendations are derived. Panel conditioning effects (PCE), that is changes in actual behavior, attitudes, or knowledge, or changes in response behavior as a result of previous survey participation, endanger these most important aims of longitudinal research: The valid measurement of stability and change. The research gap in the area of PCE exists because of a lack of studies that allow testing for causal inferences. Specifically, in order to understand the mechanisms of PCE as well as to propose means to reduce measurement error due to PCE it is essential to use an experimental study design. Thus, we propose an innovative study design, which encompasses a 2 X 6-factorial experiment and a 2-factorcal experiment. The first factor manipulates the frequency of answering the same questions (from one to six times) and the second factor varies the measurement interval (2-months and 4-months between waves). This study design will be implemented in two existing panel studies: first in the GESIS Panel, an offline recruited probability-based mixed-mode (online and mail) panel and second an online access panel. We selected the online mode, as the main survey mode because this mode becomes increasingly important for panel study. The overall goal of the proposed project, therefore, is to better understand the magnitude (i.e., effect size) of PCE and the mechanisms that cause PCE in order to advance the theoretical and empirical knowledge, as a basis for providing recommendations and best practice advice for researchers conducting longitudinal studies. The project is organized along three objectives. The first objective is to differentiate between different mechanisms leading to PCE: changes in reporting attitudes, behaviors, and knowledge due to reflection, survey satisficing and social desirability bias. The second objective is to identify the effect size and the significance of PCE in relation to question types represented in social surveys (attitudes, behaviors, and knowledge), different number of times the questions are asked (conditioning frequency), and different time intervals between the questions (conditioning interval). The third objective is to give recommendations for correction methods that will function as best practice advice. These recommendations will help to decrease measurement inaccuracy for the different question types. The project will also have a decisive impact on evidence-based practice because it will help large-scale longitudinal studies with substantial public policy implications to account for potential measurement errors.