Bringing Uncertain Ecosystem Services into Forest Optimization

森林生态系统为人类福利提供了许多服务，但如何在森林优化中考虑生态系统服务还不太清楚，特别是在生态系统服务不确定的情况下。支持多目标下的森林决策的各种方法可以为改进森林优化提供宝贵的机会。可以用适当的指标很好地描述ES，这些指标已经有部分可用。在考虑多个标准的连续8种优化方法中，有一些很有希望的方法可以将不希望看到的结果最小化(折衷规划)。这些方法可以很好地与稳健优化相结合。稳健的方法通常基于使用预定义的不确定性空间的非随机优化。认识到生态系统在森林管理中的重要性的多标准决策方法的一个替代办法是在森林优化中考虑经济价值系数。这些可纳入现代投资组合办法，以支持有关最佳未来森林构成和管理的决策。基于经济价值对所有企业进行一致的考虑既有吸引力，也有风险。如果某个ES的价值非常高，它可能会取代未来可能仍然重要的其他基本ES。这项研究提案希望开发和分析一种最优化方法，以测试将ES及其基于各种信息源的不确定性纳入森林最优化的后果。这种方法必须能够考虑用于表征ES的多个标准或用于优化过程的综合经济价值系数。这种办法将使人们能够根据可比较的森林生态系统的不同信息来源，分析综合森林生态系统对所产生的最佳森林构成和管理的影响。

Forest ecosystems provide numerous services for human welfare, but it is less clear how ecosystem services (ES) can be considered in forest optimization, particularly, if the ES are uncertain. Various methods of supporting forest decision-making under multiple objectives may provide valuable opportunities to improve forest optimization. ES may be described quite well with appropriate indicators, which are already partly available. Among the continuous 8optimization methods for considering multiple criteria, are promising approaches which minimize undesirable outcomes (compromise programming). These approaches can be combined well with robust optimization. Robust methods are often based on non-stochastic optimization using pre-defined uncertainty spaces. An alternative to multi-criteria decision methods for acknowledging the importance of ES in forest management would be to consider economic value coefficients in forest optimization. These could be integrated into modern portfolio approaches to support decisions about the optimal future forest composition and management. A consistent consideration of all ES based on their economic value has appeal, but also bears risks. If a certain ES is valued very highly, it could displace other essential ES which may still be important in the future. This research proposal would like to develop and analyse an optimization approach to test the consequences of integrating ES, and their uncertainties based on various information sources, into forest optimization. This approach must be capable of considering either multiple criteria to characterize ES or aggregated economic value coefficients for the optimization process. Such an approach would allow the influence of the integration of ES to be analysed, based on different information sources for comparable ES, on the resulting optimal forest composition and management.