Assessing the Effects of Ballot Sequence and Candidate Information on Voting Behavior with Evidence from Mixed-Member Electoral Systems

混合成员选举制度将两种形式的代表选举--通常是使用得票最多的选区竞争规则和具有较大选区规模的比例代表制(PR)机制--合并为一次选举。在目前关于混合选举制度的文献中，关于混合选举制度的两个组成部分如何影响公民行为一直存在争议。采取受控比较观点的研究人员假设，每个组成部分都独立地影响公民的决策制定，因此，FPTP层产生两党主义，公关产生多党主义。相反，其他研究人员强调两个组分之间的相互作用(污染效应)，并认为混合成员系统的运行方式不同于单纯添加纯FPTP和PR系统。在解决上述关于混合成员制影响的争端方面，一个关键差距是个人如何与其选票互动并在投票中作出决定的微观基础。我们的项目旨在通过重点研究选票结构研究及其对混合成员选举制度中投票的影响之间的交集，来解决这一关键的知识差距。我们的主要研究问题是：1)选民使用选票上的哪些信息来指导他们的投票决定；2)在混合选举制度中，选民如何使用来自政党名单选票的信息来通知他们的选区选票(反之亦然)；以及3)选票选择的顺序如何影响投票结果？我们调查这个问题的方法是独一无二的。关于混合议员制投票的研究大多依赖于地区选举报表或代表调查数据。虽然这项工作提供了宝贵的见解，但它并没有在选民与选票互动时对他们进行评估。此外，大多数关于选票设计的研究都强调了候选人在选票上的顺序；我们的项目也侧重于选民选择不同职位的顺序。我们使用调查实验和实验室环境来控制和改变选民收到的信息以及他们与这些信息互动的顺序。我们将在德国、日本和立陶宛进行调查实验，这些国家在采用的混合成员制度、政党竞争和其他因素方面存在显著差异。实验室实验将更多地关注心理机制，将在德国进行。我们从这两种方法收集的数据将使我们能够评估我们关于选民微观行为的假设。这些发现应该让我们能够在混合选举制度中对结果的两种主要理论解释(“受控比较”和“污染效应”)之间做出判断，并发展关于办公室投票顺序如何影响行为的知识。

Mixed-member electoral systems combine two forms of selecting representatives – typically constituency races using first-past-the-post (FPTP) rules and proportional representation (PR) mechanisms with a large district magnitude – into a single election. In the current literature on mixed-member electoral systems, there have been a dispute how both components of mixed-member systems affects citizens’ behavior. Researchers taking the view of controlled comparisons assume that each component affects citizens’ decision making independently from each other so that FPTP tier produces bipartism and PR produces multipartism. In contrast, other researchers emphasize interaction between both components (contamination effects) and argue that mixed member systems operate differently from the simple addition of pure FPTP and PR systems. A critical gap in resolving the above dispute on the effects of mixed-member systems is the micro-level foundations of how individuals interact with their ballots and make decisions at the polls. Our project is designed to address this critical knowledge gap by focusing on the intersection between research on ballot structure and its impact on voting in mixed-member electoral systems. Our primary research questions ask: 1) What information do voters use on ballots to inform their voting decisions; 2) How do voters use information from party list ballots to inform their constituency votes (and vice versa) in mixed-member electoral systems; and 3) How does the sequence of ballot choices influence voting outcomes? Our approach to investigating this problem is unique. Most of the research on voting in mixed-member systems has relied on district-level election returns or representative survey data. While this work has provided valuable insights, it does not assess voters as they interact with the ballots. Furthermore, most of the research on ballot design has emphasized the order of candidates on the ballot; our project focuses on the order in which voters make choices for different offices, as well. We use survey experiments and a laboratory environment to control and vary the information voters receive and the sequence in which they interact with this information. We will conduct the survey experiments in Germany, Japan and Lithuania, which have significant variations in the adopted mixed member systems, party competition and further factors. The laboratory experiments focusing more on psychological mechanisms will be conducted in Germany. The data we gather from these two approaches will enable us to evaluate our hypotheses about the micro-level behavior of voters. The findings should allow us to adjudicate between two major theoretical explanations for outcomes in mixed-member electoral systems ("controlled comparisons" and "contamination effects") and to develop knowledge about how the sequence of voting for offices influences behavior.