Seasonality and interannual to centennial climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interlglacial - Combining coral records, stalagmite records and climate models (CaribClim II)

最后一次间冰期比现在稍微暖和一些。因此，这一时期~ 12.5万年前被认为是1-2°C全球变暖情景的部分模拟，其中考虑到大气温室气体浓度没有进一步增加。最后一次间冰期是最近的，足以获得保存完好和准确的气候记录，并为研究当代全球变暖的潜在后果提供了一个窗口。我们建议通过分析来自博内尔岛的珊瑚化石和来自波多黎各的石笋化石，重建加勒比地区最后一次间冰期的季节性和年际至百年气候变化范围。结合气候模式模拟，我们将确定在海洋和陆地档案中观测到的气候变率的强迫机制。珊瑚的Sr/Ca和氧同位素比值将提供短期内海面温度和水文平衡的月分辨重建，有力地解决了年循环问题。石笋中的稳定同位素信号将提供几千年近年代际分辨率的降雨强度重建。最先进的气候模型将用于模拟几十年到几千年的水文循环（氧同位素）和地表温度的演变。我们的方法将在与社会相关的时间尺度上量化加勒比地区在一个比今天稍微温暖的时期的自然气候变化范围。

The last interglacial was slightly warmer than present. Thus, this period ~125,000 years ago has been suggested to serve as partial analogue for 1-2 °C global warming scenarios that consider no further increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The last interglacial is recent enough to obtain well-preserved and accurately dated climate records and offers a window to study the potential consequences of contemporary global warming. We suggest reconstructing the range of seasonality and interannual to centennial climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interglacial by analysing fossil corals from Bonaire and stalagmites from Puerto Rico. Combined with climate model simulations, we will identify forcing mechanisms of climate variability observed in the marine and terrestrial archives. Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios in corals will provide monthly resolved reconstructions of temperature and hydrologic balance at the sea surface for short time intervals, robustly resolving the annual cycle. Stable isotope signals in stalagmites will provide reconstructions of rainfall intensity in near-decadal resolution over several millennia. State-of-the-art climate models will be used to simulate the evolution of the hydrological cycle (oxygen isotopes) and surface temperature over decades to millennia. Our approach will quantify the range of natural climate variability in the Caribbean during a period slightly warmer than today on timescales relevant for society.