Marketing Approach for Understanding Demand Dyramics of A New Transport Service

本研究的目的在于探讨一种新的交通服务--“城市空中交通”的乘客特性，并提出一个能反映乘客对一种新的交通服务的偏好结构的模型系统，为市场动力学模型的建立提供一种新的思路。论文分为以下两类。(1)对新的运输服务的需求结构的研究建立诸如lgit分析的Disagregae模型在预测近期需求方面具有很大的优势。但是，由于市场容量的巨大性和预测份额的微小性，份额模型的预测精度有时会低于客运量。市场细分或新的建模概念将被要求了解需求结构。在这里，一个不同的方法被应用到这样一个问题和市场效应的cpe。在对大城市机场的直升机乘客数据进行调查后，采用了LISREL模型和修正的DOGIT模型。研究结果显示，直升机通勤者的行为倾向是由价值观、资讯量、服务水准及个人特质所形成。已经进行了进一步的研究。重复和试验支架进行分类robustness判别模型。(2)一种新的运输服务的扩散过程的研究简要地总结了日本新的运输服务提供后的乘客需求的最新趋势。基于扩散模型的概念进行了模拟分析，以获得一些信息的需求动态机制。乘客被划分为三个细分市场：创新者，模仿者和重复者。根据实际旅客趋势和模拟结果，我们认为这些服务的商业和宣传工作也是关键项目。最后，这些分析可以提供一个新的系统规划的决策和管理的方法与营销意识是必要的。

The purpose of this study is to investigate characteristics of passengers of a new servce - helicommuter called "city air link", to propose a modelling system which could represent preference structure for a new transport service, and to provide a new idea in modellng market dynamics. The paper is dividedinto the following two kinds.(1) A study on demand structure for a new transport serviceDisagregae modelling such as lgit analysis has much advantages in predicting near future demand. But, the prediction accuracy from share model is sometime below the volume of passengers because of hugenesof market volume and smallness of the predicted share. Market segmentation or new modelling concept will be requested for understanding the demand structure. Here a different approach was applied to cpe with such a problem and with marketng effects. LISREL modelling and modified DOGIT model were utilized after investigation of heli passengers data collected in metropolitan airports. The results indcate that the captivity for helicommuter has been formed by a sense of values, information amounts, level of service, and characteristics of each trip maker. Further studes have been conducted. The repeater and trial bracket were classified by robabilistic discriminant modelling.(2) A study n diffusion process for a new transport serviceThe recent trends of passenger deand after the provision of new transports in Japan Were summarized briefly. Simulation analysis based on diffusion modelling concept was conducted to obtain some information on the mechanism of demand dynamics. The passenger was dvided into three market segmentatins : innovator, imitator and repeater. We suggested that commercial and promotional efforts in thse services were also key items, judging from actual trend of passengers and the result of simulation. Finally, these analyzes could provide that the approach with marketing sense is essential for decision making and managing of a new system planning.