An Inter-regional Trade Model based on I/O and Price Equilibrium Framework

该模型可用于预测开放短期均衡条件下的区域间货运需求，即1）最终需求由另一个计量经济模型外生给出，2）工业和居民点位置没有变化。传统的铸造业运输需求与土地利用的简单模型源于对其他研究领域成果的类比。最新的模型进行了改进，结合联合收割机的行为分析和均衡理论。可以肯定的是，实用的区域间货运需求预测模型必须遵循这样的路径，从这个意义上说，本模型可以标志着这一方向的第一步。然而，这个模型只能提供初步的理论和实践结论。从理论上讲，必须使其与经济学中关于企业行为和一般均衡分析的理论相一致。从实际应用的角度来看，有必要通过改进数据库系统和个别局部模型来提高模型的可靠性。最后，对可能大规模改变区域间货物流动格局的城际公路建设项目进行可行性分析，评价其可行性。

This model seems to be useful in predicting inter-regional freight demands in conditions of open and short-term equilibrium, that is to say, 1) the final demand is given by another econometric model exogenously and 2) there is no change in industrial and residential location. The traditional simple models of transportation demand and land use for casting originated by analogy from results of other research fields. The most recent models have undergone improvements which combine behavioral analysis and the equilibrium theory. It is certain that practical interregional freight demand forecasting models must be trace such a path. In this sense, the present model may come to mark the first step in this direction. This model, however, can only provide tentative theoretical and practical conclusions. From a theoretical aspect, we must make it consistent with the economic theory on the behavior of firm and general equilibrium analysis in great detail. From a practical aspect, it is necessary to raise the reliability of our model by improving the database system and individual partial models. And finally, we have to carry out the feasibility analysis for the intercity highway construction projects which may change patterns of inter-regional freight flow on a great scale as far as we evaluate its availability.