Indirect and direct anthropogenic drivers: population increase, land management and conservation

在社会生态系统中，生物多样性、自然对人类的贡献和人类福祉不仅受到体制和治理的影响，而且还受到其他间接驱动因素的影响，包括人口增长和经济发展。这些因素共同决定了影响生物多样性的直接人为驱动因素，特别是土地利用和土地管理、气候变化、自然资源开发和入侵物种扩散。在这个项目中，我们将调查这些司机在乞力马扎罗山SES中的影响。重点将放在植物多样性上，因为植被与其他类群的多样性密切相关，并对生态系统的运行起着基础性作用，因此NCP。首先，我们将研究人口与经济发展(作为间接驱动因素)和土地利用(作为直接驱动因素)之间的时空关系，将人口密度、人均收入和总收入(连同SP4和SP5)的变化与土地利用和植被覆盖的变化联系起来。此外，我们将使用指标将这些土地覆盖变化转换为估计的生物多样性变化(与SP7合作)。我们将确定65+1600个地块上外来物种和入侵物种的比例(作为另一个直接驱动因素)，并将其与相同的指标相关联。为了评估直接驱动因素气候变化对生物多样性的长期影响，我们将重复进行植被调查和森林调查，并扩大我们的气候和树枝测量范围。除了收集关于生物多样性成分变化的数据外，还将利用由此产生的关于生物量、枯木和雾截获的数据来制定关于SP1和SP2的NCP供应的措施。其次，我们的目标是将指标从65+1600个地块提升到整座山(连同SP7)。这将使我们能够分析整个热带山区生态系统的多样性和相关NCP的变化。第三，作为减轻其他驱动因素负面影响的潜在积极驱动因素，我们的目标是通过重复2001年的航空调查来评估国家公园的保护价值，并比较两次调查中公园的情况。本专题还涉及乞力马扎罗国家公园管理局的高度优先任务之一，这将是对东非最大的森林区块之一进行航空调查的第一次重复。此外，一些结果将有助于量化调节NCP的供应，如对SP1重要的山体滑坡和火灾风险。最后，该项目将使用一个独特的数据集，分析影响生物多样性不同组成部分的主要驱动因素，以沿海拔和土地利用梯度放大一套未被研究的热带系统。此外，它还将为KILI-SES的所有其他SPS提供重要信息。

In social-ecological systems (SES), biodiversity, Nature’s contribution to people (NCP) and human well-being are not only influenced by institutions and governance but also by further indirect drivers, including population growth and economic development. Together, these factors determine the direct anthropogenic drivers that affect biodiversity, in particular land use and land management, climate change, the exploitation of natural resources and the spread of invasive species. In this project we will investigate the impact of these drivers in the Kilimanjaro SES. The focus will be placed on plant diversity, since vegetation is strongly related to the diversity of other taxa, and plays a fundamental role for the functioning of ecosystems, and hence NCP. Furthermore, a rich data set of 1600 vegetation plots together with the 65 KiLi 1 plots is available for this task.First, we will study the spatial and temporal relationship between population and economic development (as indirect drivers) and land-use (as direct driver), relating changes of population density and per-capita and total income (together with SP4 and SP5) to changes in land-use and vegetation cover. Furthermore, we will convert these land cover changes to estimated biodiversity changes using indicators (collaborating with SP7). We will determine the proportion of exotic and invasive species (as another direct driver) on the 65+1600 plots and relate it to the same indicators. To assess the long-term impact of the direct driver climate change on biodiversity we will repeat vegetation surveys and forest inventories and extend our climatic and dendrometrical measurements. In addition to gathering data on change in biodiversity components, the resulting data on biomass, dead wood and fog interception will be used to derive measures on NCP supply in SP1 and SP2. Second, we aim to upscale the indicators from the 65 + 1600 plots to the whole mountain (together with SP7). This will enable us to analyse changes of diversity and related NCP for an entire tropical mountain ecosystem. Third, as a potential positive driver mitigating the negative effects of the other drivers, we aim to assess the conservation value of the National Park, by repeating the aerial survey of 2001 and to compare the situation of the Park between the two surveys. This topic addresses also one of the high priority tasks of Kilimanjaro National Park authority and would be the first repetition of an aerial survey of one of the largest forest blocks in East Africa. Furthermore, some of the results will contribute to quantifying the supply of regulating NCP such as landslip and fire risk important for SP1.In conclusion, this project will analyse the major drivers affecting different components of biodiversity using a unique dataset for upscaling for a suite of understudied tropical systems along elevational and land-use gradients. Moreover, it will provide important information for all other SPs of KiLi-SES.