Development of adaptive observation strategies for improving tropical cyclone forecasts

将基于集合资料同化方法的观测灵敏度估计应用于热带气旋个例，定量评估了热带气旋周围部署的特殊探测的影响。在此基础上，通过统计分析，提出了热带气旋自适应观测策略。结果表明，中低层观测对热带气旋预报有较大的积极作用。

The observation sensitivity estimation based on an ensemble data assimilation method was applied to tropical cyclone cases, and impacts of special soundings deployed around tropical cyclones were quantitatively evaluated. Based on the estimated observation impacts, an adaptive observation strategies for tropical cyclones were derived by a statistical approach. The results showed that observations at low and middle levels had larger positive impacts for improving tropical cyclone forecasts.