Impacts of Free Trade Agreement on Japanese Eoonomy in East Asia

随着世界贸易组织多边贸易体制摩擦不断，世界主要贸易国纷纷诉诸区域和双边贸易安排。最近，日本与包括新加坡、墨西哥、韩国、泰国、菲律宾、马来西亚、中国和印度尼西亚在内的亚太地区多个国家启动了贸易谈判。其中，2002年签订的日本-新加坡自由贸易协定（FTA）和最近签订的日本-墨西哥自由贸易协定（FTA）已成为两项协议。与其他国家的谈判仍在进行中。与此同时，正在与东盟国家集团就区域贸易协定进行谈判。这表明日本目前的贸易战略是双管齐下的：双边和区域。这将形成一个新的“日本自由贸易协定网络”，对作为贸易网络中心的日本经济产生累积效应。在一般均衡框架下进行了各种研究，以评估个别双边自由贸易协定对伙伴国经济的影响，以及对拟议的区域贸易制度的影响。本文有两个目的：首先，利用GTAP模型比较上述各双边贸易协定中取消关税对日本经济的个别影响；其次，考虑双边贸易情景与涉及日本和新EPA所涉国家的区域多边贸易情景之间的区别。

With the persistent frictions in the WTO's multilateral trade regime, the world's major trading nations have resorted to regional and bilateral trading arrangements. In the recent past, Japan initiated trade talks with a number of countries in the Asia Pacific region including, Singapore, Mexico, Korea, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, China, and Indonesia. Two of these have already been concluded giving rise to the Japan-Singapore FTA which was concluded in 2002, and the recently concluded Japan-Mexico FTA. Negotiations are still advancing with other countries. At the same time, negotiations are ongoing with ASEAN bloc of countries towards a regional trade agreement. This suggests that Japan's current trade strategy is double-pronged : the bilateral and the regional. This promises to create a new "Japan FTA Network" that will cumulatively have ramifications for the Japanese economy which constitutes the hub of the trade network. Various studies have been carried out under general equilibrium framework to assess the impact of individual bilateral free trade agreements on the economies of the partner countries, as well as on the impact of the proposed regional trade regime. The present paper has twofold objectives : First, to compare the individual results of the elimination of tariffs in each of the above bilateral trade agreements on Japan's economy using the GTAP model ; and secondly, to consider the difference between a bilateral trade scenario and a regional-multilateral trade scenario involving Japan and the countries involved in the new EPA.