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The Effects of APEC Trade and Investment Liberalization on Structural and Employment Adjustments : A CGE Model Analysis

APEC贸易和投资自由化对结构和就业调整的影响：CGE模型分析

基本信息

批准号：
11630041
负责人：
LEE Hiro
金额：
$ 0.9万
依托单位：
KOBE UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1999
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1999 至 2000
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11630041/
关键词：
APEC Trade Liberalization Foreign Direct Investment CGE Model

项目摘要

This research provides numerical simulation analysis of the impact of APEC trade and investment liberalization on real GDP, structural and employment adjustments using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.Real GDP of developed and developing APEC members is predicted to increase by $42 billion and $83 billion, respectively, by the year 2020 from trade liberalization, compared with the baseline scenario where no trade liberalization is assumed during 2000-2020. In Japan, output and employment of labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture and processed food would contract, whereas those of capital-intensive sectors such as machinery, transportation equipment, and metals and products would expand. In ASEAN countries, output and employment of not only labor-intensive sectors but also some advanced sectors such as machinery are predicted to expand.The simulation results from the model that incorporates foreign direct investment (FDI) suggest that FDI liberalization would bring about greater benefits than trade liberalization to all the APEC economies with the exception of Japan. In the manufacturing sector, trade and FDI are found to be complements in the APEC regions. In other words, trade liberalization leads to an increase in the inward and outward FDI stocks, and FDI liberalization leads to an increase in trade flows of manufactures.

本研究利用动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，对APEC贸易投资自由化对真实的GDP、结构调整和就业调整的影响进行了数值模拟分析，预测到2020年，APEC发达成员和发展中成员的真实的GDP将分别因贸易自由化而增加420亿美元和830亿美元。与假设2000-2020年期间没有贸易自由化的基线情景相比。在日本，农业和加工食品等劳动密集型部门的产出和就业将收缩，而机械、运输设备、金属和产品等资本密集型部门的产出和就业将扩大。在东盟各国，不仅劳动密集型产业，机械等先进产业的产出和就业也将扩大。将外国直接投资（FDI）纳入模型的模拟结果显示，对除日本以外的所有APEC经济体来说，FDI自由化都比贸易自由化带来更大的好处。在制造业部门，贸易和外国直接投资被认为是APEC地区的补充。换句话说，贸易自由化导致内向和外向外国直接投资存量的增加，外国直接投资自由化导致制造业贸易流量的增加。