The modeling of the future development of the mode of transport choice in everyday life using dynamic microsimulation

该分项目的目的是利用中期动态微观模拟来模拟运输工具选择的未来发展。重点是在德国日常旅行中个人选择的交通工具。基于交通行为的实证解释模型，模拟占地区差异和人口构成的人口变化。在建模时，考虑到影响运输方式选择的变量的多样性。与运输有关的变量（如汽油价格或上班距离）和与运输无关的变量（如社会经济特征）是核心。居住地和车辆所有权也被列为相关的长期决定因素。该模型的特点是考虑了社会学和心理学的潜在解释因素，如习惯，态度，期望或生活方式，这在以前的预测模型中大多被忽视的交通工具的选择。该子项目表明，将传统的与运输有关的预测模型的变量与社会学解释因素相结合，提高了模型对运输方式选择的预测能力，使用动态微观模拟作为预测技术，说明了这样一个事实，即关于运输行为的决定可以在个人层面上得到解释，更高社会层次的发展是这些个人决策的结果。因此，在任意分化的亚群的背景下，与运输行为相关的社会过程可以在微观模拟的框架内显示，而不必放弃在个人层面上建模复杂的相互依赖的机制。该分项目根据各种设想，说明哪些解释性因素与进一步发展交通工具的选择特别相关，以及在哪些条件下，可以预期未来的发展会偏离现状。特别注意的是探索人口变化的后果，交通工具的选择和政治干预，以解决不同的亚群内的流动性改变的态度和价值观的情景。模拟的起点是基本数据集，该数据集是在项目第一阶段创建的，将通过与流动性有关的其他数据源加以扩展。

The aim of the subproject is to model the future development of the choice of means of transport using dynamic microsimulation for a medium-term period. The focus is on the individual choice of means of transport for everyday travel in Germany. Based on an empirical explanatory model for transport behavior, the simulation accounts for regional disparities and demographic changes in the composition of the population. When modeling, consideration is given to the diversity of the variables which influence the choice of means of transport. Transport-related (e.g. gasoline prices or distances to work) and non-transport-related variables (e.g. socio-economic characteristics) are central. The place of residence and vehicle ownership are also included as relevant long-term determinants. The modeling is distinguished by the consideration of sociological and psychological latent explanatory factors, such as habits, attitudes, expectations or lifestyles, which have been mostly neglected in previous forecasting models for the choice of means of transport. The subproject shows that a combination of variables from traditional transport-related forecasting models with sociological explanatory factors improves the forecasting ability of models for the choice of means of transport.Using dynamic microsimulation as a forecasting technique accounts for the fact that decisions regarding transport behavior can be explained on the individual level, and that developments on higher societal levels are the result of these aggregated individual decisions. Social processes related to transport behavior in the context of arbitrarily differentiated subpopulations can thus be shown within the framework of microsimulation without having to forego modeling complex interdependent mechanisms at the level of individuals. The subproject shows, based on scenarios, which explanatory factors are particularly relevant for the further development of the choice of means of transport and under which conditions a deviation from the status quo can be expected in future developments. Particular attention is given to scenarios exploring the consequences of demographic change for the choice of means of transport and political interventions that address changed attitudes and values regarding mobility within different subpopulations. The starting point of the simulation is the basis data set, which was created in the first project phase and is to be expanded with additional mobility-related data sources.