A prognosis of the occupational integration of migrants with regard to regional disparities in Germany - an application of the dynamic microsimulation

这个研究项目的目的是预测在长达25年的时期内德国移民职业融合的未来发展。预测结果的目的是对德国移民的融合发展问题作出贡献。预测的特点将是考虑到区域小地区的差异，以及考虑到人口的种族和社会结构组成的人口变化。这将有助于分析因果机制、其构成和背景影响以及少数民族劳动力市场一体化的未来发展之间的相互作用。集成过程将使用动态微仿真建模。预测模型的起点来源于已有的纵向多层次分析的实证结果，而这些实证结果本身是基于理论考虑和早期迁移研究的结果。然而，移民职业定位的未来发展并不仅仅取决于表明个人或环境层面上职业定位的因果效应的机制。人口进程也可以通过触发构成效应对这些发展产生影响。此外，少数民族的职业定位会受到环境条件变化的影响。运用微观模拟的动态建模，首先可以对职业结构进行正向预测，其次可以分析职业结构变化的因果机制变化，第三可以更新小区域人口构成的变化。为了评估人口构成的发展，将考虑到移民的生育行为、年龄和死亡率结构，尽可能准确地描述移民群体。同时，还将对土著人口进行同样的调查，以便估计在今后几年中移徙者与土著人口在职业定位变化方面的差距。

The aim of this research project is to predict future developments of the occupational integration of migrants in Germany over a period of up to 25 years. The forecast results are intended to contribute to the question of the integrational development of migrants in Germany. Special features of the forecast will be the consideration of regional small area disparities as well as the consideration of demographic changes in the ethnic and socio-structural composition of the population. This will allow the analysis of the interplay between causal mechanisms, their compositional and contextual effects and the future developments of the labor market integration of ethnic minorities.Integration processes will be modeled using a dynamic microsimulation. Starting points for the prediction model are derived from existing empirical results of longitudinal multi-level analyses, which themselves are based on theoretical considerations and findings of earlier migration research. However, future developments of the occupational positioning of migrants do not only depend on mechanisms which indicate a causal effect on occupational positioning at the individual or contextual level.Demographic processes can also have an impact on these developments by triggering compositional effects. In addition, the occupational positioning of ethnic minorities can be influenced by changes in contextual conditions. Application of dynamic modelling with microsimulation allows first the forward projection of the occupational structure, second the analysis of the change in the causal mechanism for the change in the occupational structure, and third the update of the changes in the small area demographic composition of the population.To assess the development of populational compositions, migrant groups will be described as precisely as possible by taking into account migrant’s fertility behavior, age and mortality structure. Simultaneously, the same processes will be traced for the indigenous population in order to estimate the distance between migrants and the native population regarding changes in the occupational positioning during the coming years.