A prognosis of the occupational integration of migrants with regard to regional disparities in Germany - an application of the dynamic microsimulation

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The aim of this research project is to predict future developments of the occupational integration of migrants in Germany over a period of up to 25 years. The forecast results are intended to contribute to the question of the integrational development of migrants in Germany. Special features of the forecast will be the consideration of regional small area disparities as well as the consideration of demographic changes in the ethnic and socio-structural composition of the population. This will allow the analysis of the interplay between causal mechanisms, their compositional and contextual effects and the future developments of the labor market integration of ethnic minorities.Integration processes will be modeled using a dynamic microsimulation. Starting points for the prediction model are derived from existing empirical results of longitudinal multi-level analyses, which themselves are based on theoretical considerations and findings of earlier migration research. However, future developments of the occupational positioning of migrants do not only depend on mechanisms which indicate a causal effect on occupational positioning at the individual or contextual level.Demographic processes can also have an impact on these developments by triggering compositional effects. In addition, the occupational positioning of ethnic minorities can be influenced by changes in contextual conditions. Application of dynamic modelling with microsimulation allows first the forward projection of the occupational structure, second the analysis of the change in the causal mechanism for the change in the occupational structure, and third the update of the changes in the small area demographic composition of the population.To assess the development of populational compositions, migrant groups will be described as precisely as possible by taking into account migrant’s fertility behavior, age and mortality structure. Simultaneously, the same processes will be traced for the indigenous population in order to estimate the distance between migrants and the native population regarding changes in the occupational positioning during the coming years.