Longitudinal modeling of the future development of the occupational status of third generation migrants using a micro simulation

该项目的主要主题是德国移民职业地位未来发展(中期为30-40年)的经验模型。在这方面，它旨在将移民地位的发展与人口的族裔和社会结构构成的变化联系起来，这是由德国人口变化和特定的移民历史造成的。我们认为，除了因果效应外，这些成分效应还可以影响同化结果。由于明确考虑了人口驱动的合成效应，本项目的结果可以为德国同化模式的长期发展提供初步的见解。因此，本项目侧重于第三代移民的职业地位，这在同化过程中发挥着重要作用，因为这一代人的社会出身影响的特殊性：与第二代移民相比，第三代移民的父母没有在原籍国获得的任何资本，因此必须转移。由于缺乏足够的数据，到目前为止，第三代移民的职业地位发展情况尚未得到调查，因为这一代中的大多数成员刚刚长大或甚至没有出生。然而，根据预测模型，有足够的经验信息来可靠地估计这一发展。在本项目中，状态投影将通过动态微观仿真来实现。由于当地人口的职业地位发展也将被预测，本项目还调查了德国人和移民之间的结构距离在未来几年将如何变化的问题。通过理论驱动的纵向分析为预测模型提供了经验基础。由于社会出身的影响起着如此核心的作用，在这一背景下，焦点一代将是第二代移民。在这种情况下，有足够的数据进行复杂的实证调查。纵向分析以及预测模型参数说明的数据基础将是来自SOEP和Mikrozcount的数据的组合。

The main subject of this project is the empirical modelling of the future development (middle-term period of 30-40 years) of the occupational status of migrants in Germany. In this context, it is intended to connect the migrants´ status development with the change of the ethnic and socio-structural composition of the population, which is caused by demographic change and the specific migration history in Germany. We believe that those composition effects can influence the assimilation results in addition to causal effects. With the explicit consideration of demographically driven composition effects, the results of this project can offer first insights concerning the long-term development of assimilation patterns in Germany. Thereby, this project focuses on the occupational status of the third generation of migrants, which plays an important role in the process of assimilation because of the specific character of the status-related effect of social origin in this generation: In contrast to the second generation, the parents of members of the third generation do not have any capital which is gained in their country of origin and thus has to be transferred.Due to lack of sufficient data, the development of the occupational status of the third generation has not been investigated up to this point, since most of the members of this generation just grow up or are not even born. However, there is enough empirical information to estimate this development reliably on the basis of a projection model. In this project, the status projection will be realized with a dynamic micro simulation. Since the development of the occupational status will also be projected for the native population, this project also investigates the question how the structural distance between Germans and Migrants will change in the next years.The empirical basis for the prognosis model is provided by theoretically driven longitudinal analyses. Since the effect of social origin plays such a central role, the focus generation in this context will be the second generation of migrants. In this case, there is enough data for complex empirical investigations. The data basis for the longitudinal analyses as well as for the specification of parameters for the projection model will be a combination of data from SOEP and Mikrozensus.