Longitudinal modeling of the future development of the occupational status of third generation migrants using a micro simulation

利用微观模拟对第三代农民工职业地位未来发展进行纵向建模

• 批准号: 280604069
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Petra Stein
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Soziologie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/280604069?language=en
• 关键词: Longitudinal; modeling; future; development; occupational

The main subject of this project is the empirical modelling of the future development (middle-term period of 30-40 years) of the occupational status of migrants in Germany. In this context, it is intended to connect the migrants´ status development with the change of the ethnic and socio-structural composition of the population, which is caused by demographic change and the specific migration history in Germany. We believe that those composition effects can influence the assimilation results in addition to causal effects. With the explicit consideration of demographically driven composition effects, the results of this project can offer first insights concerning the long-term development of assimilation patterns in Germany. Thereby, this project focuses on the occupational status of the third generation of migrants, which plays an important role in the process of assimilation because of the specific character of the status-related effect of social origin in this generation: In contrast to the second generation, the parents of members of the third generation do not have any capital which is gained in their country of origin and thus has to be transferred.Due to lack of sufficient data, the development of the occupational status of the third generation has not been investigated up to this point, since most of the members of this generation just grow up or are not even born. However, there is enough empirical information to estimate this development reliably on the basis of a projection model. In this project, the status projection will be realized with a dynamic micro simulation. Since the development of the occupational status will also be projected for the native population, this project also investigates the question how the structural distance between Germans and Migrants will change in the next years.The empirical basis for the prognosis model is provided by theoretically driven longitudinal analyses. Since the effect of social origin plays such a central role, the focus generation in this context will be the second generation of migrants. In this case, there is enough data for complex empirical investigations. The data basis for the longitudinal analyses as well as for the specification of parameters for the projection model will be a combination of data from SOEP and Mikrozensus.

该项目的主要主题是对德国移民职业地位的未来发展（30-40年中期）进行经验建模。在这方面，它打算将移民地位的发展与人口的种族和社会结构组成的变化联系起来，这种变化是由人口变化和德国的具体移民历史造成的。我们认为，除了因果效应之外，这些成分效应也会影响同化结果。明确考虑人口驱动的组成效应，这个项目的结果可以提供第一个见解同化模式在德国的长期发展。因此，本项目的重点是第三代移民的职业地位，这在同化过程中发挥着重要作用，因为这一代人的社会出身与地位有关的影响具有特殊性：与第二代相比，第三代成员的父母在原籍国没有任何资本，因此必须转移。由于缺乏足够的数据，到目前为止还没有对第三代人职业地位的发展进行调查，因为这一代人大多数刚刚长大，甚至还没有出生。然而，有足够的经验信息可以根据预测模型可靠地估计这一发展。在本项目中，状态投影将通过动态微观模拟来实现。此外，由于还预测了德国本土人口的职业状况的发展，因此本项目还研究了德国人与移民之间的结构性距离在未来几年内将如何变化的问题。通过理论驱动的纵向分析，为预测模型提供了实证基础。由于社会出身的影响起着如此重要的作用，在这方面，重点一代将是第二代移民。在这种情况下，有足够的数据进行复杂的实证研究。纵向分析的数据基础以及投影模型参数的规格将是SOEP和Mikrozensus数据的组合。